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猎梦人 发表于 2013-7-5 22:15 
我觉得经历吧，光靠这样说是没用的，但我相信跟你说的这些朋友都是善意的。
只有经历过相应的场景，才可 ...
Totally agree with you on the comments, BANZHU:). I think Fubao's theory also is good when the market does not act in the worst situations. In the normal case, it always helps you to make money.
It is like the gambling theory we are quite familiar with: If you play a 50/50 game and use below strategy to make the betting, in most cases, you win the money:
1. Initially put $1, if win, take extra $1 and put $1 on the betting, if lose, go to 2;
2. put $2, if win, take extra $2 which covers initial $1 lose and win $1, go back to put $1 on the betting, if lose, go to 3;
3. put $4, if win, take extra $4 which covers intial $1 and step 2 $2 and win $1, go back to put $1 on the betting, if lose, go to 4;
...
...
...
N. put 2*2*2...*2 (n times), if win, take extra $... which covers all the money in the previous steps and win $1, go back to put $1 on the betting, if lose, go to N+1
If you do not have enough money to cover N+1 betting, you lose all the money
How to judge this theory and input how many percentages as the intial betting is up to us and depends on our personality. However, if our intial betting is big, the N will be small and the tolerance is small. Therefore, it is quite easy to go to step N+1 and lose all the money. However, if our intial betting is small, the N will be big and the tolerance is small. Do you have enough patience to wait to collect the initial money each time? Or even in extreme situations, there are too many steps before it gets right, lose all the money.
All the theory has its advantage and disadvantage. There is no perfect way to garantee that we always make money. It is only to select the risk tolerance we can take and choose the corresponding strategies to react. |
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新足迹读书半月谈 2009年6月下 —— 巴尔扎克 (2009-6-15) joaquin 
楼主:fubao
发表于 2013-7-30 17:35
