根据SQM今天发布的报告，2012年澳洲房价将进一步下跌 悉尼将逆势上涨
在RBA在2012年之前 维持利率不变的前提下
到2012年年底之前，
悉尼的房价将上涨0-4%
墨尔本的房价将下跌5%-7%
布里斯班的房价将下跌4%-7%
佩斯的房价将下跌2%-4%。
到2012年年底，墨尔本、布里斯班、佩斯的房价将比2010年高峰时期下跌15%。
2010年6月，墨尔本、布里斯班的房价达到了最高峰。
2010年3月，佩斯的房价达到了最高峰。
到目前为止，墨尔本2011年的房价已经下跌5%。
如果RBA有一次降息，可能阻止房价下跌。
While an economic catastrophe in China or a second credit crunch could spark massive falls in Australian home values, it's more likely that prices will continue their orderly decline into next year as wary buyers stay out of a falling market, says a new report.
Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, predicts that by June 2012 home prices in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth will be as much as 15% below their 2010 peaks, assuming no rate change from the Reserve Bank. Sydney's outlook is more positive.
"If rates are left on hold, house prices are likely to keep falling well into 2012 with no market bottom until at least the middle of the year," Mr Christopher said in a report from SQM, a property research group.
The group estimates that one rate cut could halt the decline in house prices. Brisbane and Perth house prices had dropped about 6%so far this year, according to SQM, while Canberra's house prices were essentially flat. Sydney houses were down 2% while Melbourne's had fallen by about 5% so far in 2011.
The Reserve Bank kept rates on hold yesterday for the 10th consecutive month, pointing to a clouded view on local and growth growth prospects.
"A key question will be the extent to which softer global and domestic growth will work, in due course, to contain inflation," RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in yesterday's statement on monetary policy.
SQM said the catalyst for a house price crash could take the form of higher interest rates, slower growth triggered by weakening demand for Australian commodities from China, or a massive over supply of new housing stock. In another possibility, bank failures overseas could cause a credit crunch similar to the one in 2007-08, driving up loans costs and cutting their availability, sending prices lower.
"It is, however, important to note that one trigger could bring on another," Mr Christopher said, giving the example of a slowdown in China, which could see unemployment jump from its current 5.1%.
Analysts will get a clearer picture of the overall health of the economy when second quarter growth figures are released today, with analysts predicting a rebound of 1%in the gross domestic product, following a 1.2% contraction in the first quarter of 2011, following the Queensland floods.
Although SQM said homes prices were "overvalued" in some cities, it did not expect a house price crash at the national level, "just modest price falls for houses in most cities".
To date, the median national city home price has lost 3.4% in value according to RP Data-Rismark.
As a result, activity in the housing market has cooled but signs of life remain. Home loans increased by a lower-than-expected 1% in July, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. But the weaker pace of growth in the sector has the banks tipping flat or lower house prices for some time come.
Of the capital cities, Sydney stood out as a being on track for house price growth of between zero and 4% by the end of 2012, factoring in no rate change, SQM said.
Melbourne prices are tipped to drop between 5 and 7% over the same period.
Brisbane's prices are expected to sink between 4 and 7%, while Perth's are expected to drop between 2 and 4%.
Melbourne and Brisbane homes hit their peak prices in June 2010, while Perth's were at their highest in March 2010, SQM said.
[ 本帖最后由 长安雪梨 于 2011-9-7 17:00 编辑 ]
q (2013-2-12) bernadine 
发表于 2011-9-7 17:59
发表于 2011-9-7 21:12
