过去6年墨尔本新房建成量25.5万套 人口增长17万多户 供过于求8万套

长安雪梨

过去5年墨尔本新房建成量21万套 人口增长14万多户 供过于求6.5万套
过去5年悉尼新房建成量14万套 人口增长16万户 短缺1.8万套

去年墨尔本新房建造申请量为4.4万套，人口增长2.9万户，供过于求1.5万套
去年悉尼新房建造申请量为2万套，人口增长2.7万户，短缺0.7万套。

对墨尔本的租客来说，墨尔本的房租很便宜，全澳倒数第3
对墨尔本的房东来说，墨尔本的房价下跌的苦日子才刚刚开始

Housing Supply - Melbourne Good News, Sydney Bad News

July 12, 2011

http://smh.domain.com.au/blogs/domain-property-monitor-blog/housing-supply--melbourne-good-news-sydney-bad-news-20110712-1hbt7.html

Dr Andrew Wilson is Senior Economist for Fairfax-owned Australian Property Monitors.

Property market stirs
Rates are on hold, home prices are stable and first-home buyers awaken. Andrew Wilson reports.

As populations increase and buildings deteriorate, new stock is required to supply the community's ongoing requirements for shelter.

Providing access to the housing market through affordable dwellings is also an important function of the housing supply chain.

Individual housing markets supply new housing at different levels. The Melbourne and Sydney housing markets are stark examples of differences that can occur in housing supply levels.


New South Wales is Australia's most populous state and Sydney its most populous city. Latest ABS data reveals that New South Wales had a population at December 2010 of 7,272,200 with its capital Sydney recording 4,575,532 as at June 30 last year. The same ABS data set has Victoria's population at 5,585,600 and Melbourne at 4,077,036.

The construction of new homes in New South Wales and Victoria is however disproportionate to the comparative size of both the state and capital city populations.
Looking back over the last 20 years, it is clear to see that New South Wales house building levels have been in a long-term pattern of decline. In the ten years between 1990 and 2000, 455,276 new dwellings were built in New South Wales compared to the 348,803 built between 2000 and 2010.



Over the past five years the decline in new house building in New South Wales has been even more pronounced. Only 141,618 new dwellings were built between 2006 and 2010. During that time the number of households in New South Wales increased by 159,388 – nearly 20,000 more households than the number of new residences built.

By contrast Victorian dwelling construction has grown from strength to strength as indicated by the long-term pattern of activity. In the ten years between 1990 and 2000, 304,541 new dwellings were built in Victoria which increased markedly to 421,501 new dwellings between 2000 and 2010.

Over the past 5 years Victoria has built 211,381 dwellings with the number of households growing by 146,980. This represents an excess of nearly 65,000 new residences over new households.

Last year New South Wales built only 27,655 new dwellings. By contrast Victoria built a record 50,700 dwellings in 2010 approaching twice that produced by New South Wales.

The current significant difference in the level of dwelling construction between Victoria and New South Wales is set to continue, particularly in regard to the Sydney and Melbourne markets.

According to the ABS, only 20,756 dwellings were approved for building in Sydney between July 2010 and June 2011. Of this, only 7,534 were approvals for new houses. This compares with Melbourne that has approved 44,102 new dwellings for building over the same period of which 22,161 were houses.

The ABS projects that the number of Sydney households will grow by 27,012 over the year ending June 2011. Clearly the current level of new dwelling construction is insufficient to keep up with the growth in households. The number of Melbourne households is projected to grow by 29,114 over the year to June 2011. Melbourne's is clearly in a much better position than Sydney to cater for the accommodation needs of growing household numbers.

The level of housing supply in Melbourne offers the prospect of a more balanced housing market with moderated competition for housing providing the foundation for sustainable rental and house price growth.  This will provide better general access to the market for tenants and prospective home buyers.

Melbourne is also providing increased diversity of accommodation options to its residents with continued strong home building in outer-urban areas, growth in suburban medium-density townhouses and a boom in inner-city apartments.

The chronic undersupply of new dwellings in Sydney will however only increase the already intense competition for housing in that city. This will continue to put upward pressure on rentals and house prices as tenants and prospective homeowners continue to struggle to gain a foothold in the housing market.

The current significant difference in the level of household growth and dwelling construction between the Sydney and Melbourne is illustrated by the considerable difference in median asking rentals for each city.

Sydney's rentals are nearly 33% more expensive than Melbourne, which is a clear indication of the comparatively high level of competition for accommodation in Sydney and the impact that has on housing costs.

Despite recent government action to temporarily cap and review infrastructure levies for housing developers, finding effective long-term remedies for Sydney's housing supply shortfall remains an extremely difficult problem.

As for Melbourne – well the news is a lot better.


[ 本帖最后由 长安雪梨 于 2011-7-14 17:20 编辑 ]

golden100

房子继续，移民开放

GKZ

好事

cry2

Just let it drop, hehe~~ Those real estate businessmen ought to pay for it.

啦啦啦啦

但从房屋增加和人口增加数目算房子短缺或供过于求肯定不对
如果原来一家6口住一起，现在分成3家人住，人口增长为0，但房屋增长为2了啊

realfenglin

用当年股票市场的名言：
听专家的，不如听交易所门口看自行车大妈的。

卡落琳0000

好事啊

长安雪梨

从2005-2011年6月30日的6年时间，墨尔本的新房开工量是25.5万套，人口增长是17.5万户，新房供过于求8万套。
这8万套房子至少需要3年才能消化完。

从2005-2011年6月30日，悉尼的新房开工量是16万套，人口增加是18.7万户，短缺2.5万套。这就是为什么悉尼现在Meriton, Australand, Crown,Mirac等开发商，随便预售60万的公寓楼花就被哄抢一空的原因所在。因为新盖得房子实在是太少了。

在悉尼买50万的房子，首次置业者是免印花税，非首次置业者的印花税是1.8万澳元。

而在墨尔本买50万以上的房子的印花税是1.76万澳元(减去20%的Concession),非首次置业者的印花税是2.5万澳元。

[ 本帖最后由 长安雪梨 于 2011-7-13 09:52 编辑 ]

echoliu

原帖由 啦啦啦啦 于 2011-7-13 09:37 发表
但从房屋增加和人口增加数目算房子短缺或供过于求肯定不对
如果原来一家6口住一起，现在分成3家人住，人口增长为0，但房屋增长为2了啊

同感！原有的供需缺口也要算在内才有逻辑可言。

drin

增加人数以外，原有人群内未解决住房问题的人远超此数字呀。这种计算方式，十分简单粗糙。

chenpu

可怜悉尼的房租和房价都还是居高不下阿!

yangwulong1978

lljlll

好消息，有机会买好点的房子，不过房价就算跌，也跌不大！！！最好5年里面不涨！

zldfe

看来维省规划好，控制房价得力，纽省市场被少数大开发商操控，哄抬物价

Housing Supply - Melbourne Good News, Sydney Bad News

看来维省生存环境更适易，不知可否这么理解？？

GKZ

原帖由 啦啦啦啦 于 2011-7-13 09:37 发表
但从房屋增加和人口增加数目算房子短缺或供过于求肯定不对
如果原来一家6口住一起，现在分成3家人住，人口增长为0，但房屋增长为2了啊

澳洲是成熟市场， 只有小孩买不起房， 继续和父母住

语阁

就喜欢看雪梨的文章，等悉尼涨，墨尔本跌。

tianlin

原来是雪梨的文章。雪梨的房子还套在手里吗？

chuliuxiang

文章理解有陷阱

托马斯索耶

快把墨尔本的房子卖了去悉尼买。

qinyi

市场调节, 悉尼住房紧张>>房价上涨>>悉尼人负担不起>>到墨尔本买房>>消化墨尔本房产库存

长安雪梨

原帖由 qinyi 于 2011-7-13 17:30 发表
市场调节, 悉尼住房紧张>>房价上涨>>悉尼人负担不起>>到墨尔本买房>>消化墨尔本房产库存

为什么 悉尼住房紧张>>房价上涨>>悉尼人负担不起>>墨尔本买房？

有点脑子的人都知道，
布里斯班的房价比墨尔本低1个层次
布里斯班的工资比墨尔本相当或略高
布里斯班的气候比墨尔本好2个级别以上
布里斯班的房租回报率比墨尔本高高30%以上
House的地比墨尔本大40%
人口增长比墨尔本快很多
矿产比墨尔本多N倍不止

墨尔本比布里斯班有一个优势：来自墨尔本的鸡姐现在是总理，来自布里斯班的陆克文被赶下台了

samtheexpert

根据公告，万科2010年平均每10天收购一家公司。年销售额从2004年的91亿，到2010年的1000多亿，6年时间翻了12倍。2014年实现2000亿的规模已经没有悬念。2010年万科交付了30万套房子，按每户3人的标准意味着仅一年就有100万人的生活与万科有关；以这个速度，未来十年交付300万套，将影响1000万人的生活。


相对于澳洲的大发展商来说,一年能够交付1000套房子已经是极限了

samtheexpert

原帖由 长安雪梨 于 2011-7-13 17:37 发表


为什么 悉尼住房紧张>>房价上涨>>悉尼人负担不起>>墨尔本买房？

有点脑子的人都知道，
布里斯班的房价比墨尔本低1个层次
布里斯班的工资比墨尔本相当或略高
布里斯班的气候比墨尔本好2个级别以上
布里斯班的房租回 ...

请教一下长安大哥，为什么163都喜欢跑去墨尔本。墨尔本的小生意卖得比悉尼贵？

长安雪梨

请教一下长安大哥，为什么163都喜欢跑去墨尔本。墨尔本的小生意卖得比悉尼贵？

原因如下：

1. VIC 以前的STVENS BRACKS 和 JOHN BRUMBY州政府非常注重吸收商业移民和技术移民，而且效率非常高，是澳洲8个州和领地 最有效率的

2. 163移民 曾经最痴迷南澳的州担保。SA州只要申请州担保，都会批。但2007年以后，VIC政府后来居上，简化程序，在163、176，886上非常高效. 一般商业移民最希望来澳洲的悉尼，但NSW州担保非常繁琐，使得墨尔本变为最佳的选择。

3. VIC州吸收的163等中国的商业移民每年有3000多人，而中国来澳洲的163等商业移民总数才4000多人

4. 来墨尔本的3000多商业移民，合1000户，过去6年有6000多户在墨尔本安家落户。 这6000多户都必须在墨尔本买生意，整个墨尔本每年转让的生意不会超过3000家，每个CITY COUNCIL 不会超过100家。有这么大量的市场需求，就带动了163生意的价格暴涨。 一个普通的饭馆生意，周营业额在8000-10000，在墨尔本可以买到20-30万澳元

同理，阿德莱德的163生意价格也是这个原理

长安雪梨

相对于澳洲的大发展商来说,一年能够交付1000套房子已经是极限了


本来不想把下面这些数据列出来，很多数据都是花钱买的

NSW 2009年前20名承建商builder新房量为6265套，最大的3家分别为Meriton, Mirvac, Clarendon

NSW’s TOP BUILDERS IMPROVE MARKET SHARE IN 2008/09

NSW’s largest builders have increased their market share over the past financial year, HIA’s Housing 100 report shows, thanks largely to the tripled First Home Owner’s Grant.

The residential construction sector was very weak last year with new dwelling starts in NSW falling by 26 per cent in 2008/09. Total new home starts in NSW in 2008/09 were 23,357 compared with 30,779 in 2007/08.

But the report found the market share of the largest 20 builders in NSW increased from 19% in 2007/08 to 27 per cent in 2008-09, thanks largely to the tripling of the federal First Home Owner’s Grant to $21,000.

NSW’s top 20 builders built 6,265 dwellings in 2008/09, compared with 5,912 dwellings in 2007/08. 前20名的承建商平均每家开工310套新房。每年在悉尼开工200套新公寓在NSW 可以进入前15名承建商之列。

Meriton Apartments was the state’s largest builder over the year with 1108

starts. 而07/08年Merton的在NSW公寓开工量为491套。09/10财年 Meriton在NSW的公寓开工量达到1500套。

Mirvac Group moved to second place (down from first place the year before)

with 855 starts.

Clarendon是NSW最大的House承建商，08/09年度承建新房685套。


NEW SOUTH WALES - 2008/09
STARTS = 23,357

Rank	Company	Starts
2008/09		2008/09 2007/08
1	Meriton Apartments	1,108	491
2	Mirvac Group	855	1,049
3	Clarendon Residential Group	685	599
4	McDonald Jones Homes	510	414
5	Allworth Homes	406	381
6	Eden Brae Homes	404	337
7	Westminster Building Co Pty Ltd	278	303
8	Hotondo Homes**	270	370
9	GJ Gardner Homes**	268	252
10	Lily Homes	223	-
11	Coral Homes*	204	265
12	Wincrest Homes	186	244
13	Perry Homes (Aust)	180	237
14	Champion Homes Sales	165	191
15	Allam Homes	108	71
16	Firstyle Homes Pty Ltd	94	75
17	Montgomery Homes Pty Ltd	86	65
18	Betterlook Lloyds	80	85
19	Eagle Homes	79	135
20	Integrity New Homes Pty Ltd	76	71
Total		6,265	5,635

[ 本帖最后由 长安雪梨 于 2011-7-13 18:28 编辑 ]

121581822

怎么会这样的？

长安雪梨

原帖由 tianlin 于 2011-7-13 12:43 发表
原来是雪梨的文章。雪梨的房子还套在手里吗？

我很享受 被墨尔本的TX 狂轰滥炸，谩骂，妒忌，和 惦记

这刚刚签了Lidcombe的1套 Apt, double brick，2房，103平方，35万澳元，9年新，在3楼，租金430澳元

墨尔本有这样回报率的Apt吗？


2011年7月1日起 澳洲炒房的主力已经转移到悉尼了  墨尔本已经是昨日黄花


P.S  墨尔本的TX就不要发短信给我了  你们推销给我的MEL的APT 都是垃圾品种 你们这不就是鲁班门前卖大斧吗

[ 本帖最后由 长安雪梨 于 2011-7-13 18:44 编辑 ]

qinyi

原帖由 长安雪梨 于 2011-7-13 17:37 发表


为什么 悉尼住房紧张>>房价上涨>>悉尼人负担不起>>墨尔本买房？

有点脑子的人都知道，
布里斯班的房价比墨尔本低1个层次
布里斯班的工资比墨尔本相当或略高
布里斯班的气候比墨尔本好2个级别以上
布里斯班的房租回报率比墨尔本高高30%以上
House的地比墨尔本大40%
人口增长比墨尔本快很多

请问你这些推论有没有数据的支持？
如果没有，只能说明你自己无脑！

samtheexpert

原帖由 长安雪梨 于 2011-7-13 18:35 发表


我很享受 被墨尔本的TX 狂轰滥炸，谩骂，妒忌，和 惦记

这刚刚签了Lidcombe的1套 Apt, double brick，2房，103平方，35万澳元，9年新，在3楼，租金430澳元

墨尔本有这样回报率的Apt吗？


2011年7月1日起 澳洲炒房的主力已经转移到悉 ...

Horsby的2房2卫38万，租金450.管理费500/季度。可以投资吗？

长安雪梨

貌似可以投资

物业费一定会涨到900-1000的

具体位置？ 多少年新？