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This thread is to answer #2 of [1] and our American friends who have quite different types of problems. If you have a deep understanding of economy theories, you know the exchange rates are part of economic equations. In a way, fluctuation of exchange rates is like “waves” [2] in stocks, bonds, and real estate prices. It is difficult to profit from currency fluctuations. When I hear from an innocent who claims he/she or someone familiar can make tidy living by participating currency exchanges, I feel sorry for this guy because this cannot be true long term. The “wave” of currencies can be quite long. I remember after the US 2001 tech bubble bust, foreign monies still rushed into the US. In fact, they were part the reason causing the current financial crisis [2]. Another reason was government interference in the property market as discussed in [3]. I remember then newspaper headline was whether Aussie dollar would fall below US$0.5. In my opinion, long term Aussie/US exchange rate should be somewhere around US$0.8.
Let us now consider investment return for residential property in the US. It is somewhat complicated but my observation is that long term return in the US is inflation + 2% per year. The 2% is due to demographics, I.e. increase in population. On the other hand, the Australian residential property market should return inflation + 4% per year. The difference between Australian market and the US market is mainly due to immigration influx. For investment in stock market measured by market index, the US market and Australia market return about equal.
If you have Aussie dollars, the first consideration on investment is still investment in Australia stock market index. If you want to take advantage of high Aussie dollar, you may convert some into US dollars and then invest in US market index such as SPY or SP500 index. It does not make sense to buy US property unless you want live there.
For our American friends, you need to take long term perspective. If you invest in either stocks or homes, you gain little, if any, in the last 10 years. However, if you read the book “Stocks for the Long Run”, such 10 years intervals occur quite a few times. If you have 5 to 10 year horizon, I still think the best investment strategy is to invest in stock index. If you invest in individual stocks including new technologies, be careful. Consider various aspects of the companies. When the US dollar is so low, investing in other assets is not on the table.
Finally, one may wonder the Aussie residential property market is a bubble. Incidentally, [4] is a good article. China’s property market has two problems. One is high vacancy rate (the article mentioned only commercial properties). The other one was government interferences. Australia market does not have similar problems. Steep drop in Aussie property market is not likely to happen unless there are unexpected external factors.
Note: Please use http://www.boxun.com/hero/tianliang/ for discussion.
[1] 投资闲谈
http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/v ... &extra=page%3D1
[2] 韩家亮：次贷危机和投资浅谈
http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=20909
[3] 王蔚：次贷危机的根本原因是政府干预市场
http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=22711
[4] 中国地产巨大泡沫正在形成
http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=24322 |
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【金融危机征文】：CUT COST － 从我做起 (2008-11-13) leeshine 
发表于 2009-12-4 20:34
