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2010年的那场地震 [复制链接]

退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2010-8-23 12:50 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 黑山老妖 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 黑山老妖 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
2010年的这场大选是一次改变澳洲政治地貌的大地震。
其中最明显的2后果是:
1. 绿党的崛起。虽然可能是protest vote,但是不可否认这是绿党向选区展示他们的能力的机会。能否真正的崛起在此一届。
2. 独立议员的重要性或是弊端会被广大选民关注。是不是值得为了少数几个选区的席位而牺牲全国的利益?

绿党从九十年代年开始慢慢取代民主党(democrats),开始进入上议院。历来小党派都无法进入下议院。澳洲民主党虽然也一直在上议院起到了平衡的作用,但是也同样无法成功进入下议院。这一次绿党终于进入了下议院,这是一次历史性的转变。

绿党作为一个独立党派虽然在上议院有了阻止通过立法的实力,但是在下议院他们还是没有办法立法。因为绿党的政见比较靠近工党偏左,所以绿党很有可能会和工党达成某种程度上的攻守联盟。这样绿党在下议院立法就能得到工党的支持,而工党会在上议院得到绿党的支持。工党的政策会向左一点,绿党的政策必须向右一点。这样才能双方互利。如果绿党真正崛起,从此澳洲的政治舞台从现在的一党一联盟多个小党,向两党一联盟多独立议员,或是两联盟+独立议员转变。

独立议员一直都不是什么新鲜事,但是这么多个独立议员决定一届联邦政府可能是第一。通常要让一个独立议员帮助政府上台肯定是要付出一定代价的。这种代价可能是政策上的,也可能是经济上在选区撒钱。为一个独立议员付出一点代价还可以承受,但是这么多的独立议员要付出多大的代价?这桩幕后政治买卖的代价目前还没有人知道。但是最后的结果肯定是这几个选区会大大的得益,而全国其他选区的选民要为此付出多大的代价?没有上台的那一方肯定会抓住这点拼命的攻击政府。这很可能成为这届政府短命的一个导火线。

谁上台的机会比较大?选举前我就说了这次大选是五五之数。结果来了个hung parliament。但是我觉得工党上台的机会比联盟党大一点。最重要的原因在上议院。很明显上议院被绿党把持。没有绿党的支持任何法案都通不过。如果不能立法那么执政也就变成了空话。而就凭Tony Abbott在环境变暖的立场来说绿党支持联盟党的可能性无限接近0,除非Malcolm Turnbull再次上台。当然就凭Tony Abbott这次选举成绩,要让Malcolm Turnbull上台的可能性也是无限接近0。 所以一切迹象显示只有工党上台才有可能和绿党合作,让立法在上议院通过。而且这次下议院的几个独立候选人中Andrew Wilkie应该是支持工党的,原因很简单:当初他就是反对霍华德参加伊战而爆料,然后从政的。绿党的Adam Bandt,肯定是支持工党的。剩下的三个就比较难说。但是这三个都是郊区选区的,所以教育、医疗和NBN对他们的吸引力是非常大的。这也让他们靠近工党而不是自由党。除非自由党能够开出足够好的条件来补偿他们这三个选区。但是这样的代价是很昂贵的。

最终结果可能要到下星期五才能出来。大家拭目以待吧。

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Happy Wife = Happy Life
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退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2010-8-23 13:31 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 黑山老妖 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 黑山老妖 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
Andrew Wilki已经参选失败了。
就剩下三个独立候选人和一个绿党的了。
工党和联盟党是73:73。也就是说一切都看着三个独立候选人的意愿了。

发表于 2010-8-23 13:35 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 bulaohu 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 bulaohu 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2010-8-23 11:50 发表
2010年的这场大选是一次改变澳洲政治地貌的大地震。
其中最明显的2后果是:
1. 绿党的崛起。虽然可能是protest vote,但是不可否认这是绿党向选区展示他们的能力的机会。能否真正的崛起在此一届。
2. 独立议员的重要性或 ...


我昨天晚上一直在看ABC 24, 这三个前国家党的人都提到了NBN是他们的重点考虑之一。怪不得Abbott昨天就开始改口说他的宽带政策是可以商量的

退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2010-8-23 13:36 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 黑山老妖 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 黑山老妖 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
原帖由 bulaohu 于 23/8/2010 12:35 发表


我昨天晚上一直在看ABC 24, 这三个前国家党的人都提到了NBN是他们的重点考虑之一。怪不得Abbott昨天就开始改口说他的宽带政策是可以商量

And that could be very expensive for us to build special network in those areas...
Happy Wife = Happy Life

发表于 2010-8-23 13:37 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 cdfei 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 cdfei 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
还是希望Abbott在政策转左一点的情况下主政,不然这届政府就太左了,不是好事

发表于 2010-8-23 13:38 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 典 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 典 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
就看谁Offer的好处多了,
要宽带 要机场 要鱼塘要....,看谁能满足就投靠谁
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发表于 2010-8-23 13:38 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 cdfei 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 cdfei 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
工党就不计较花费?

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2010-8-23 12:36 发表

And that could be very expensive for us to build special network in those areas...

退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2010-8-23 13:40 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 黑山老妖 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 黑山老妖 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
原帖由 cdfei 于 23/8/2010 12:38 发表
工党就不计较花费?


Part of NBN plan any way. No or very little extra cost for labor.
Happy Wife = Happy Life

退役斑竹 2007 年度奖章获得者 2008年度奖章获得者 特殊贡献奖章 参与宝库编辑功臣

发表于 2010-8-23 13:41 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 黑山老妖 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 黑山老妖 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
原帖由 bulaohu 于 23/8/2010 12:35 发表


我昨天晚上一直在看ABC 24, 这三个前国家党的人都提到了NBN是他们的重点考虑之一。怪不得Abbott昨天就开始改口说他的宽带政策是可以商量的

Another loose tongue moment for Tony Abbott.  And looks like the labor is a step closer.
Coalition refuses to budge on broadband
http://www.smh.com.au/technology ... 20100823-13ejm.html
The Coalition has signalled it will not budge on its broadband policy to suit a clutch of country independents who will decide which of the major parties will form a minority government.

Broadband was seen as the major difference between the parties during the election campaign and, with a hung parliament, it will now be a key factor in negotiations between the independents and the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, and Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott. Both Labor and the Coalition need their support to seize power.

The former National Party members turned independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter have all nominated broadband as a key concern and have supported Labor's $43 billion National Broadband Network, which will deliver speeds of at least 100 megabits per second to 93 per cent of the population. Their regional electorates currently rely on creaky dial-up connections and sub-par communications services.

The Liberals will dump the NBN and have proposed a more modest plan that will deliver 12 megabits per second peak speeds to 97 per cent of the population. Unlike the NBN, the infrastructure will be privately owned and will rely on a mix of existing ageing infrastructure and wireless.

Today, Shadow Finance Minister Andrew Robb said the Coalition's $6.3 billion broadband policy was already the strongest for rural and regional Australia.

“The Coalition's broadband package as it stands, unlike Labor's, places highest priority on delivering improved services to blackspot areas, including throughout rural and regional Australia," he said.

“It will see new competitive fibre backhaul rolled out in those regions which lack it and it will see satellite and wireless services enhanced across the country. In this regard the fibre backbone, rolled out to all corners of Australia, will be equivalent to that delivered by NBNCo.

“Another important component of our package is a competitive grants stream to allow for upgrades of the existing fixed line network to bring services such as ADSL2+ to communities that currently don't have access to it."

Asked yesterday whether he would change his broadband policy to appeal to the independents, Abbott said he did not want to "pre-empt" the discussions but he intended to "be very pragmatic, but within the broad policy parameters which we discussed during the election".

Gillard yesterday talked up the NBN, saying it would help bridge the divide between metropolitan and regional Australia.

The Coalition's broadband package, which will rely heavily on the private sector, has been criticised by the internet industry and communications experts who argue that Labor's fibre-to-the-home package, while more expensive, will be faster and more future-proof.

The Australian Information Industry Association is seeking urgent talks with the independent MPs to urge them not to abandon the NBN, The Australian Financial Review reported today.

Mr Katter, who was returned in the north Queensland seat of Kennedy, has nominated broadband as high on his list of priorities, and is completely against it being privately run.

Mr Windsor, from New England, in northern NSW, is of like mind. He came out swinging against the coalition's "retrograde" plan, saying it would be a disaster to leave it to competition to deliver broadband to country Australia.

Mr Windsor said it was time to get on with the National Broadband Network - "the railway of the 21st century".

Meanwhile, Mr Oakeshott's passion for broadband can be traced back to his maiden speech. In it, he reflected on students and business in his NSW mid-north coast seat battling with dial-up connections. He has welcomed Labor's network and plans for government to be its majority owner.

The Australian Greens' new MP for Melbourne, Adam Bandt, supports the NBN and has said he will side with Labor.

Jason Ashton, CEO of wireless operator BigAir, has disagreed with many in the industry and says the Coalition's wireless plan will be sufficient. He says wireless speeds are constantly increasing and will be able to eventually deliver 1Gbps speeds to households, which is what the NBN will reach to.

"The NBN has the potential to become an expensive 'white elephant'," he said.

"We have several fixed networks in this country that cover a large number of houdsholds including two HFC [hybrid fibre and coaxial] networks, one copper network and multiple wireless networks - so why would the government overbuild all these existing private networks? It looks like sovereign risk to me."

But University of Sydney associate professor Bjorn Landfeldt is sceptical about wireless as a substitute for Labor's fibre-to-the-home plan, saying it will be slower and require thousands of new mobile towers.

"If you look at their [BigAir's] web page they offer residential access using WiMax of 2Mbps, hardly the 100Mbps-1Gbps the NBN will offer," he said.

"Wireless links can be a good complement to fibre at some locations where it is difficult to deploy fixed infrastructure, and this has been to some extent recognised by the NBN plans for rural wireless parts."

Peter Coroneos, chief executive of the Internet Industry Association, said the NBN was necessary because it was faster and easier to expand. He said Australia was now ranked 50th in the world in terms of our average broadband speeds, highlighting the need for fibre-to-the-home.

"The initial costs [of the NBN] seem high, but you only have to build it once," he said.

"That's why some of the fastest growing economies in the world like Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong and Singapore have chosen optical fibre technology for their broadband future – enabling greater competition, choice and innovation in providing broadband services and applications."

Coroneos said faster broadband would revolutionise the way we communicate and deliver real-time access to a wide range of health, educational and aged care services.

"It will help us get cars off the road, by enabling more people to work from home; better manage our household power use; open up new ways of doing business and the way we consume music and video offerings," he said.

But James Spenceley, CEO of wholesale ISP Vocus, was not convinced, saying it was a mistake to invest in the NBN without a proper business case. He said existing speeds were good enough.

"[Broadband] access for people who don't have it is essential, more speed for the rest of us is a luxury," he said.

"Faster internet does not equal a more stable and prosperous future. Today it means faster download of movies and money diverted away from important things like hospitals and actual care for the elderly and sick - not to mention things like town water and power."

[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2010-8-23 12:42 编辑 ]
Happy Wife = Happy Life

2007 年度奖章获得者 参与宝库编辑功臣 飞天奖章

发表于 2010-8-23 13:43 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 astina 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 astina 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
从昨晚看电视新闻到今早听radio新闻,采访三位独立议员,都是口口声声说会把国家的利益放在自己选区的利益前面。如果能够促成自由党接受和推行NBN,这是好事。

但是同意老妖说的,目前工党比联盟党有更大机会组阁。
于无声处听惊雷

2007 年度奖章获得者 参与宝库编辑功臣 飞天奖章

发表于 2010-8-23 13:44 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 astina 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 astina 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2010-8-23 12:41 发表

Another loose tongue moment for Tony Abbott.  And looks like the labor is a step closer.
Coalition refuses to budge on broadband
http://www.smh.com.au/technology ... oalition-refuses-to ...

What a shame
于无声处听惊雷
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发表于 2010-8-23 13:49 |显示全部楼层
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谁上台都一样,一年内还是要大选过的,短命政府,
烦人

发表于 2010-8-23 13:54 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 bulaohu 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 bulaohu 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
原帖由 astina 于 2010-8-23 12:43 发表
从昨晚看电视新闻到今早听radio新闻,采访三位独立议员,都是口口声声说会把国家的利益放在自己选区的利益前面。如果能够促成自由党接受和推行NBN,这是好事。

但是同意老妖说的,目前工党比联盟党有更大机会组阁。 ...


那些套话,耳朵自动过滤掉就好了

发表于 2010-8-23 21:09 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 灰太郎 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 灰太郎 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
原帖由 bulaohu 于 2010-8-23 12:54 发表


那些套话,耳朵自动过滤掉就好了


同意

发表于 2010-8-23 21:27 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 令狐不冲 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 令狐不冲 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
老妖有菜~~

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