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本帖最后由 守望者 于 2015-10-24 14:37 编辑
我们还没有看到托尼阿伯特的背影呢！
当Joe Hockey向19年的议会生涯挥手作别的时候，自由党人都互相警示：不要指望托尼阿伯特很快也会效仿。
被弃置在后排4个星期后，前总理依旧怒气未消，仍坚信他有机会从特恩布尔手里夺回旧日的职权。
阿伯特仍然获得一小撮自由党议员的拥戴，还获得相当一大批自由党人的同情，尽管他们并不相信他有机会拿回总理宝座，只不过不想太疏远他。
他依旧几乎每天都要与他那位好胜的前办公室主任Peta Credlin交谈。
阿伯特说，他会在圣诞前后对自己的未来做出一个决定。在被特恩布尔夺取领导权后，他一直刻意低调行事，只接受了寥寥无几的被精心挑选过的媒体的参访。。
不过，他仍然私下与同僚们谈论领导权问题，据透露，他怨恨未消，并坚信可以重新成为总理。
当然，他并不是在空想，的确有几个因素：
首先，霍奇离开议会去当美国大使后，他遗留下的支持班底如金融部长Mathias Cormann和移民部长Peter Dutton会转而成为阿伯特的追随者，这给阿伯特带来14～20张支持票。再者，别忘记，阿伯特还有一帮媒体的鼓吹者。
虽然，这并不足以让阿伯特直接挑战特恩布尔，但足够让特恩布尔不安于榻了。
特恩布尔总理知道自己的位置还不是特别的稳固，主要原因是他在三个问题上的态度：同性婚姻、共和以及气候变化。
只要一步踏错，就会激发“基本盘”右翼自由党人的愤怒，让更多人倒向阿伯特，那样就会促成阿伯特兴高采烈的回归。
We haven’t seen the back of Tony Abbott yet
AS Joe Hockey today waves goodbye to 19 years in Parliament, fellow Liberals are alerting each other: Don’t expect Tony Abbott to do the same any time soon.
The former PM remains angry after four weeks on the backbench and has not shed a belief he can get his old job back from Malcolm Turnbull.
Mr Abbott is being encouraged by a small group of supporters and by the well-intentioned sympathy of a larger group of Liberals, who do not believe he has a chance of making a comeback, but don’t want to add to his alienation.
And he continues to talk almost daily with his politically aggressive former chief-of-staff Peta Credlin.
Mr Abbott’s former treasurer Joe Hockey is leaving to replace former Labor leader Kim Beazley as ambassador to Washington, Australia’s most important diplomatic post in terms of national security and the global economy.
His departure will require a by-election for the seat of North Sydney, possibly in the next month. Practice requires a quick ballot to ensure the locals are not left unrepresented, but the summer holidays are closing in and a vote might be put off until early next year.
And that would be more likely were Mr Abbott to quit his seat of Warringah. The two by-elections could be held on the same day to reduce the cost of an expensive double-barrelled democratic exercise.
Mr Abbott has said he will make a decision on his future by around Christmas. After a scattering of carefully selected interviews following his party room defeat by Mr Turnbull, he has kept a low public profile.
Since his initial burst of self-vindication, Mr Abbott has been an exemplary former leader, sharing a backbench spot with Mr Hockey.
However, he continues to discuss the leadership privately with colleagues who have told news.com.au the bitterness is still there, as is his belief he can again be prime minister.
There are some factors behind this.
The departure of Mr Hockey will leave behind his own support group — including Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, who has his own long-term leadership ambitions.
They could swing behind Mr Abbott, giving him as many as 14 to 20 MPs as dedicated backers, plus a media squad of bolted-on supporters.
That’s not enough to directly challenge Mr Turnbull, but enough to cause mischief.
Prime Minister Turnbull is aware his hold on the post is not firmly cemented, and that is one reason why he has trod softly on three issues — same-sex marriage, the republic and climate change measures.
A misstep on these matters could upset the right of the party, now commonly referred to as “the base”, and excite more backing for an Abbott return.
The attention today is on Mr Hockey’s farewell speech, but as he takes his leave the dominant question will be: When will Tony take his?
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发表于 2015-10-24 14:27
