外汇讨论贴

黑山老妖

根据CBA的预测，看好澳元兑美元。CBA认为澳元会继续强劲，可能会于年底达到89美分。明年可能回落到85-86美分。

水无痕

这么强????????
要多多赚澳币才行啊

黑山老妖

美国马上就有可能是recession了。美元不跌不行啊。

水无痕

哦~~~~~~~~~~!
等它衰退的时候去买房子可能是个好主意

水无痕

老妖很厉害啊
今天涨到0.83了

黑山老妖

我对外汇没有研究的，知会到处拾别人的牙慧。

Will the US Dollar Continue to Fall?
The US dollar came within a hair of 1.3855, its all time record low against the Euro. By the end of the week we expect to see either see a new record low or a double top.  Over the past five trading days, the US dollar has not seen one positive day as the concerns about the US economy continue to grow.  At this critical juncture, the primary question on everyone’s mind is, “Will the US dollar continue to fall?”  Although 1.3850 is a significant resistance, we think that this level will be reached once again and it is just a matter of time before it will be broken.  The 185 point rally in the stock market indicates that equity traders expect nothing less than a quarter point rate cut from the Federal Reserve and even that may be seen as a disappointment.  The consequence of not lowering interest rates is one of the biggest reasons why the Fed will have to deliver exactly what the market wants.  If they leave rates unchanged, we would see an entire repricing of the yield curve and the stock market collapse.  In the event of a rate cut, the dollar is expected to fall because lower interest rates will prompt investors to start looking outside the US for opportunities to earn higher yield.  The interest rate cut by the Fed will only be the beginning of more easing.  The yield curve is pricing in 3 interest rate cuts by the end of the year and some analysts are even calling for as much as 125 basis points of easing before the Fed stops.  Therefore the pressure on the dollar will come not from the actual lowering of interest rates on September 18, but instead from the expectations that rates will fall even further.  This puts the Fed’s monetary policy in stark contrast with the policies of the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia, all of which are keeping interest rates steady and holding onto their hawkish monetary policy biases.  The trade balance was the only piece of US data released today and the slightly weaker report had a limited reaction on the currency market.  There is no significant data today or tomorrow which leaves retail sales on Friday the primary focus for the remainder of the week.

ECB Trichet’s Comments Help Take Euro Towards Record Highs
It is not hard to understand why the Euro has been so strong over the past few days.  Here we have Bernanke skirting comments about the economy and monetary policy and across the pond ECB President Trichet is reassuring the markets that their expectations for growth have not changed and recent inflation risks leave the door open for another rate hike this year.  As long as the market expects the Fed to lower interest rates and the ECB to stand pat, the Euro has a greater chance of reaching 1.40 than 1.35.  The rise in gold prices today further suggests that traders are beginning to price in the possibility of a recession.  There was no major Eurozone economic data released overnight.  Eurozone industrial production is the only piece of data due out tomorrow.  Manufacturing activity is expected to be stronger, which should help keep the bid tone under the Euro.  The only problem is that the Euro may not be able to break 1.3855 on its first test.

Canadian Dollar Heads Towards 30 Year Highs
After consolidating for the past month, USD/CAD fell over 100 pips today to hit a new 6 week low on the back of higher oil prices and stronger housing numbers.  The technical break puts 1.0340, the 30 year low for USD/CAD in scope and there is a strong chance that level will be challenged over the next few days.  Bank of Canada Dodge is scheduled to speak tomorrow, but we do not think that he will diverge much from the topic of “Transparency.”  Housing starts increased a whopping 5.1 percent to 226.5k in August while new housing prices increased 0.9 percent in July.  This offset any concerns that may have stemmed from the weaker than expected trade surplus for the month of July.  The New Zealand and Australian dollars also performed extremely well today.  Both currency pairs are up over 1 percent thanks to much stronger gold prices and a renewed rally in US stocks.  The Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing their annual report tonight and Australia also has consumer confidence due for release.  New Zealand on the other hand only has food prices.  The RBNZ rate decision and retail sales are not until Thursday.

British Pound Shrugs Off Softer Data
A larger than expected trade deficit and weaker than expected leading indicators in the month of July has mattered little to a market that is focused primarily on interest rate expectations.  So far, the downside surprises in UK economic data have not been bad enough to force the Bank of England to take action.  The outlook for the US economy is far worse than the UK economy even though Britons have their own bubble troubles.  However tomorrow, the British pound will be in play.  Claimant count and average earnings are due for release.  The number of people filing for unemployment is expected to drop and average earnings growth is expected to accelerate.  An upside surprise in the employment report is worth three times the downside surprises that we have seen thus far.  The labor market is a critical part of any economy and if that remains stable, the central bank has far less to worry about.

Carry Trades Rebound but are Still Range bound
Carry trades rebounded strongly today thanks to the rally in the Dow. However before getting too excited, a closer look at charts of the Japanese Yen crosses reveal currency pairs that still remain below their late August highs.  Also these pairs are within a wide range which suggests that even though a further recovery is likely, the gains will be limited.  USD/JPY for example rebounded to 117.13 after hitting a low of 111.60 on August 17.  Therefore any rebound in USD/JPY should taper off before it reaches that same level.  

水无痕

厉害的!
快0.84了
看来要等到上次的跳水难了
怎么现在澳币这么稳呢? 那些日本投资商呢? 他们稳的住啊

黑山老妖

看图今天微微回落。可能跌回83c。

黑山老妖

Dollar – Will the Fed Sacrifice the Greenback?

Hardly an auspicious week for dollar bulls as the greenback set yet another record low against the euro hitting 1.3926 on Friday. But follow through was relatively limited. “The markets remain in a state of flux, “ we wrote on Thursday. “At this point the currency market is operating under the assumption that the Fed will cut 26bp at next week’s FOMC meeting while the ECB  may raise rates another 25bp in October, which explains EURUSD recent strength. However,  those assumptions are far from ironclad and depend to a great extent on the degree that the collapse of housing has affected overall US consumer demand.”

Last Friday’s Retail Sales were hardly a boost for dollar bulls as the number missed expectations printing at 0.3% vs. 0.5%. Still it was not disastrous with the slowdown in retail offset somewhat by robust vehicle sales. The dollar actually came off the lows in the aftermath of the news as the worst fears of a 50bp cut from the Fed began to fade away. Indeed we believe that Fed  will cut rates but only reluctantly and only by 25b. Furthermore, given $700/oz. Gold and $80/bbl oil, inflationary concerns will weigh heavy on the minds of monetary policy makers. Therefore its quite likely that that Fed, while lowers the Fed rate on Tuesday, may emphasize that this is a one time event rather than the start of new loosening cycle. The FOMC members are highly cognizant of the precarious state of the dollar and it is doubtful they would want to exacerbate its weakness by sending an overly dovish message to the markets.

After the FOMC rate announcement, the inflation story will be second most watched report by currency traders this week. With both PPI and CPI data on tap, market players will be quick to respond to any  uptick in price data. The Fed finds itself between a rock and a hard place as it must balance the calls for an ease in the credit markets with its need to maintain confidence in the US currency. -BS

黑山老妖

Yen Traders Pay Little Attention To Abe’s Farewell, BoJ Too?

The Japanese yen was slowly losing its anti-carry, anti-risk appeal last week as volatility in the global markets cooled. However, it was this calm that was specifically unusual since Japan’s Prime Minster Shinzo Abe announced he was resigning as his approval rating slipped below 30 percent. Typically, the political uncertainty from an unscheduled changing of the guard would send both foreign and domestic capital parked in Japanese assets to safer alternatives (be it investments in other Asian nations, western Europe or the US). Clearly, that was not the case this time around. Abe’s bowing out was expected given his flagging popularity (worsened by various scandals arising from his LDP party) and a vow last week that he would resign should parliament not vote to maintain the navy’s support of US efforts in Afghanistan. What’s more, the departing PM had enacted very little policy that actually helped the economy or trade. Regardless, the search for Abe’s replacement will be on the radar in the days ahead.

In economic news, this past week’s docket was painted in red. Nearly every noteworthy indicator that crossed the wires missed expectations and highlighted the various troubles of the world’s second largest economy. The DCGPI inflation gauge was unchanged for the month, merchant sentiment slipped to a four-year low, and consumer confidence dropped to a three-year low. Perhaps the most disappointing report was the final measurement of second quarter GDP. Annualized growth over the three months ending in June actually contracted 1.2 percent, the biggest drop in more than four years.

Considering recent market conditions, it is difficult to tell whether the yen will bend to swells in risk appetite/aversion or whether volatility will further settle and allow the economic calendar have its say in price action. There are two clear hurdles for a week of scheduled event risk: the Fed’s rate decision and the BoJ’s rate decision. US monetary policy is seen as the greatest chance at righting subprime fears and stabilizing the credit market (whether these are rational expectations or not is another story). The Japanese bank’s decision is expected to be a non-event; but the possibility of a changing bias keeps fundamental interest alive. For the calendar, the tertiary and all industry activity indexes will generate some interest; but the quarterly BSI confidence survey will be the real market mover for the week. – JK

蛇蝎

o卖糕的

流浪的流氓

联储降息50个基点，美元走低，85c

黑山老妖

美国减息50点，美元疲软。据闻这轮减息可能会达到100点。也就是说还有可能减2次25点一次。

黑山老妖

2007年9月20日
澳元/新西兰元对美元/日元汇率持续上升。
套息交易开始回归。

alex1031

美联储(FED)四年来首度降息，而降息幅度达到市场预期的上限，令市场感到惊讶。

我个人认为，联储降息将有利于迅速平抑次级债危机对美国金融市场的冲击，重新恢复投资者信心，同时也加大了人民币升值压力。相对人民币，美元和港元贬值将是一个中长期趋势。据有关人士透露，人民银行将陆续采取一系列宏观调控政策（如人民币在年内内将继续增息），以消除国内通货膨胀，解决流动性过剩，维护中国金融体系安全和稳定。

黑山老妖

美元还有可能继续减息，预计加上这次的0.5%总共要减1%。
反观澳元可能还会加息。新西兰元也有减息的可能
综合以上因素：澳元今天非常强劲。美元疲软。新西兰元没有太大变化。
澳元兑美元已经超过0.86。澳元兑日元逼近100大关。

alex1031

　　周三外汇市场，美元小幅反弹，因市场正在消化美联储降息举措，导致投资者谨慎情绪上升。非美货币英镑受英央行降息预期增强影响，遭遇抛售，虚弱本质尽显。

　　日本央行如市场预期宣布维持基准利率在0.5％不变，日本央行政策委员的投票结果仍为8比1，这已经是连续第三次会议投票结果出现分歧，显示出了日本央行迫切的加息心情，市场预计如果全球金融市场停止动荡，日本央行最早仍可能于10月加息。日本央行表示，水野温氏投票反对维持基准利率不变。日本央行政策委员会还维持月度政府债券购买额于1.2万亿日元不变，并维持伦巴德利率于0.75％不变。日本央行9月月度报告较缺乏新意，继续表示维持经济评估不变，称日本经济正在温和扩张，并预计日本经济将持续温和扩张。在随后召开的新闻发布会上，日本央行行长福井俊彦表示，受次级债危机的影响美国和欧洲市场仍然保持不稳的状态。日本的低利率政策是促成日元套利交易环境形成的原因。

　　加拿大通胀压力减轻，对加元构成了打压。数据显示加拿大消费者物价指数（CPI）月率连续三个月走低，8月录得-0.3％，主要受到汽油价格因原油下滑而降低4.9％的推动。年率则从前值的2.2％跌至1.7％。其中能源物价降低2.3％，差与去年同期的-1.7％。8月核心CPI月率上扬0.1％，年率上扬2.2％。在通胀年率在6个月以来首次低于加央行水平2.0％的情况下，市场对加央行加息预期减弱，加元人气受到打击。

　　英央行公布了9月6日货币政策委员会（MPC）会议纪要，该纪要显示9名成员一致同意维持基准利率于5.75％不变，而且几乎未讨论调整利率的必要性。会议焦点明显集中在不稳定的金融市场将对实体经济产生何种影响，考虑到实体经济数据和金融市场形势，委员会认为8月通胀报告中所指出的通胀上扬风险可能已消退，未来数月通胀可能维持在前两个月水平附近。MPC强调继续维持2％的通胀目标。另外，MPC也提到英国金融业的重要性，若景气下滑，将直接影响英国GDP增长。由于该纪要展望的利率前景略显温和，市场更加担心英国央行有可能跟随美联储降息而降息，英镑也因此遭遇了市场抛售，将前期涨幅一举抹去。

　　市场正在消化美联储降息举措，市场人士认为美联储的降息举措存在两面性，虽然在一定程度上削弱了美元计价资产的吸引力，但这一举措将改善美国经济的近期前景，缓解信贷市场的紧缩局面。而且受国际油价走高，以及投资者担心市场上将会更多与美国次级抵押贷款危机相联系的坏消息涌现，市场更愿意采取谨慎态度，美元从中获益。美国通胀数据也支持了美元，8月份CPI数据显示，能源和服装价格下滑令美国上个月消费价格压力缓解。8月份CPI下降0.1％，7月份为上升0.1％。该数据帮助支撑美元汇率，因数据降低了美联储减息可能引发高通货膨胀率并降低美元实际币值的风险。此外，美国8月份新屋开工数2.6％的降幅低于市场预期的下降3.7％，因此该数据也对美元构成支撑。

　　今日市场关注贝南克和美国财政部长鲍尔森向国会委员会就抵押贷款市场作证时的证言，如果贝南克认为市场在某些方面误解了减息决定传达的信息，则他可能借此机会解释美联储对经济前景的预期。

黑山老妖

自昨天以来美元持续下跌。
昨天晚上美国交易期间日元兑美元上升不少。
但是今天早上澳洲开市以后澳元继续攀升，日元下挫。
本人觉得今天有望达到87美分和100日元。

保密

美元要跌到什么程度,最多?

jiwen629

哭呀。。 本来最近打算换学费了 澳币怎么突然涨了呢 哪位牛人帮忙分析一下 澳币之后的形势啊 我需不需要再等等？

保密

老妖,快来预测一下
这此涨幅澳币最高涨到多少?

黑山老妖

金融学家们预测美国还有2次0.25%的减息，这对美元造成很大的压力。CBA预测美元兑澳元汇率会达到89美分兑1澳元。
人民币和美元挂钩势必要受影响，即人民币随美元贬值。虽然人民币兑美元也在升值但是速度不够快。至少到年底之前是很难翻身了。

[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2007-9-21 10:25 编辑 ]

保密

收到! 还是澳币坚挺啊!
说不定到1:1..............

蛇蝎

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-9-21 10:06 发表
自昨天以来美元持续下跌。
昨天晚上美国交易期间日元兑美元上升不少。
但是今天早上澳洲开市以后澳元继续攀升，日元下挫。
本人觉得今天有望达到87美分和100日元。

要是真的，老贝和小布又要忙乎了。美元长期走势下跌这是谁都明白的道理，毕竟美国国力占全世界的分额是逐年下降的。 但是美元真的崩盘也是不可承受之重，让美国人不再花全世界的钱转而过节俭日子？不可能的嘛。美国手上毕竟还拥有很多手段和筹码。它会不惜到处惹事生非的。不是有路边社消息，美军已经做好六个月内攻伊朗的准备？另外，台海发生武力事件，美元是走高还是走低，都很难讲。美国还拥有世界金融主导权。

俺的看法是，FED和美国政府在国内经济和维持强势美元之间艰难地走钢丝。可能战术性的采取贬值美元的手段。但是一旦美元崩盘的可能性出现，那么在局势明朗的时候，它会采取行动护美元的。

就AUD来说，走势如果快速摸高，很可能再次急速暴跌，并回到缓慢升值的道路上来。

呵呵，都是瞎猜，反正俺是空仓看热闹，今年估计很热闹。0.88-89 和0.79-80回相继出现在今年余下的时间里。

蛇蝎

说话间，100日元已经达到了

ToughBubble

canadian dollar nearly 1 USD now !!

黑山老妖

原帖由 ToughBubble 于 2007-9-21 10:47 发表
canadian dollar nearly 1 USD now !!

昨天晚上就到了。

黑山老妖

原帖由 蛇蝎 于 2007-9-21 10:38 发表
说话间，100日元已经达到了

到了100日元，要站上去还是有不少阻力的。

黑山老妖

原帖由 蛇蝎 于 2007-9-21 10:32 发表
要是真的，老贝和小布又要忙乎了。美元长期走势下跌这是谁都明白的道理，毕竟美国国力占全世界的分额是逐年下降的。 但是美元真的崩盘也是不可承受之重，让美国人不再花全世界的钱转而过节俭日子？不可能的嘛 ...

这次美国要是处理得不好很有可能就是一蹶不振了。

我想美国对伊朗开战是有心无力。如果真得台海开战也不会是现在，至少也要过了奥运。不管哪里开战美元肯定会跌。
说不定美国人看着美元跌啊跌啊，物价涨啊涨啊的的慢慢会习惯的。
目前最麻烦的就是美国的房地产市场。直接影响到美国的消费能力和信心。

南方雪

USD $.87 了，有些动心想买了！