关于房价的思考和疑惑

patricb

原帖由 miller2 于 2009-9-3 11:14 发表



请教LZ,为何HOMEPRICE GUIDE 上的数据(如下)和REIV的数据不太吻合?

http://www.homepriceguide.com.au ... sults/melbourne.pdf

应该是采集的方式和渠道不同吧。数据也只能作为参考，很多时候看到不同报道，引用不同数据来源的房价信息都是不同的

tencent

那个1.4M成交的房子，正对Ruffey Lake Park的入口，景色是不错，那片地区的房子极少卖出的

patricb

原帖由 tencent 于 2009-9-3 14:28 发表
那个1.4M成交的房子，正对Ruffey Lake Park的入口，景色是不错，那片地区的房子极少卖出的

位置确实相当不错，但这个价格确实有点“千金来买心头好”的感觉

fgyzj

原帖由 nikyxin 于 2009-8-25 22:33 发表
唉,俺只要还的起房贷,养的起娃,管它买贵买便宜了呢.

Agree!

caryn

疯狂啊

coocoogu

cool

patricb

Saturday September 5th 2009



As a result of another day of solid demand at the 555 auctions reported the clearance rate reached 84% per cent, the 17th weekend in a row with a result in excess of 80 per cent.
There were 555 auctions reported today, of which 468 sold, 114 sold before and a total of 87 were passed in, 46 of those on a vendors bid.
The next two weekends will provide home buyers plenty of choice as 1600 homes will be presented to auction.
Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV

TOTAL AUCTIONS
This week: 555
Last Weekend: 642
This time last year: 517

Postponed: 0
Withdrawn: 1
Auctions with no result: 31

PS Private Sales: 704

Total Volume (Auctions): $370.81mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $330.03mil

Total Auctions Houses: 407
Clearance Rate: 87%
Median Price: $656,000

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 220
Clearance Rate: 83%
Median Price: $455,000

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 15
Clearance Rate: 67%
Median Price: $320,000

miller2

原帖由 patricb 于 2009-9-5 21:19 发表
Saturday September 5th 2009





As a result of another day of solid demand at the 555 auctions reported the clearance rate reached 84% per cent, the 17th weekend in a row with a result in excess  ...

THANKS

win7

楼主想通了没有？？？

patricb

原帖由 win7 于 2009-9-7 13:44 发表
楼主想通了没有？？？

Not yet

cgz

楼主，我觉得房价高低跟银根松紧有很大关系。你做贷款的，你说说最近贷款有没有放松呀？是不是有些builder前段时间贷不到款，现在就能贷到呢？

patricb

原帖由 cgz 于 2009-9-7 20:23 发表
楼主，我觉得房价高低跟银根松紧有很大关系。你做贷款的，你说说最近贷款有没有放松呀？是不是有些builder前段时间贷不到款，现在就能贷到呢？

澳洲没有政府调控银根。如果说是调控的话，也就是reserve bank调息了，利率持续下降当然就是为了松银根促经济啦。至于商业银行内部的贷款政策，危机之后就一路收紧，但主要针对高比例贷款，80％以下的贷款几乎毫不受影响。

villa

新西兰房产市场复苏 促使各大银行开始放松贷款标准




据2009年8月30日新西兰最大报纸《The NZ Hearld》报道，前段时间受房地产市场价格走低的拖累，全国各大银行纷纷提升了房屋贷款的执行标准，申请者如果拿不出两成的首期，那么几乎就没有可能从银行那里借到钱。

但是近一段时间以来，随着房地产市场重新渐趋活跃，有业内人士称各大银行已经开始慢慢在放松贷款的标准。很多时候如果借款人拿不出两成的首期，但只要其它 条件令银行满意，那么他或她还是有可能借到自己所需要的资金的，而这被认为有助于进一步推动房地产市场的复苏。

据统计，在最近的一个季度中，发放新房屋贷款最多的三大银行分别是BNZ、Kiwibank和ASB。

据了解，发放房屋贷款最多的前两大银行BNZ和Kiwibank几乎不与贷款经纪打交道，而是直接向贷款申请者提供面对面的服务。有需要贷款的民众可以直接去这两大银行的任何一家支行进行申请。



Two sides to the broker's coin


4:00AM Sunday Aug 30, 2009   http://www.nzherald.co.nz/busine ... p;objectid=10593971

As the property market shows signs of rejuvenation, banks are loosening the purse strings and relaxing their lending criteria.

The value and number of loan approvals is well up on the beginning of the year and more banks are lending to borrowers with deposits smaller than 20 per cent.

But banks that do not deal with brokers - BNZ and Kiwibank - have been doing a lot of the lending.

In the quarter ending December last year, Kiwibank had the most new residential business of any of the main banks, and in the most recent quarter, BNZ and Kiwibank made up the top three with ASB.

So what benefits do brokers offer would-be home buyers in the current market?

Between a quarter and a third of New Zealand's mortgage business is done through a broker, who takes a loan application, finds a suitable lender and should advise on the structure of the loan.

John Bolton, of Squirrel, says he prefers to be called a "mortgage adviser" than a broker.

"The reason is that advice is such a critical part of a mortgage, which is often the largest financial transaction most people will do. Brokering suggests simply shopping a deal around banks. In reality our role is providing a helping hand through the whole transaction and beyond."

He says his services can be especially useful to people who are a bit "outside the square".

He says borrowers get more advice from a broker than they would receive from the bank. And because they know what the different lenders' credit criteria are, a client only needs to have one conversation to be matched with the right bank.

One of the key problems for first-home buyers, though, is that Kiwibank and BNZ, which both do not deal with brokers, are two of the few lenders offering loans up to 95 per cent of a property's value.

A BNZ spokesperson says as every home loan application is considered on its own merits, the bank relies on its conversation with the customer to build a thorough understanding of their finances and provide a loan suited to their circumstances with repayments they can afford. It has no plans to start working with brokers.

"We've not used brokers because our customers' needs - especially in a recession - are best met by speaking with them rather than through an unknown third party."

Kiwibank has been conducting a trial with one group of brokers, to see what quality and level of business they bring in. Spokesman Bruce Thompson says there are cost advantages in the bank working directly with the customer.

He says the trial results will be evaluated to work out whether brokers can offer benefits to the bank.

But Bolton says borrowers aren't necessarily missing out by using brokers who don't deal with the two banks. He says a broker is more able to organise a high loan-to-value ratio loan backed up by a parental guarantee, making it a lot cheaper for the borrower, who is then able to avoid costly low equity fees.

[ 本帖最后由 villa 于 2009-9-7 21:56 编辑 ]

villa

Melbourne's market continued to soar at the weekend, with a clearance rate of 84 per cent, the 17th weekend in a row it has been over 80 per cent.




据2009年9月7日《Herald Sun》报道，近期的墨尔本房产市场真可以用“炙手可热”来形容。房产拍卖成功率（clearance rate）已经连续17个星期超过80%，和去年底的51%形成鲜明对照。

事实上，这还是全墨尔本地区的平均拍卖成功率，在个别城区，这一数据更高达100%！






Pockets of Melbourne are full of real estate gold


Article from: Herald Sun

September 07, 2009 12:00am

TINY Balaclava is Melbourne's best-selling suburb, with a sale at every one of the 27 auctions held there since the start of the year.

Inner-city enclave Clifton Hill, on the other side of the river, came second with sales for 30 of 31 properties put under the hammer, according to Real Estate Institute of Victoria statistics.

But agents say the results from such suburbs should be taken with a grain of salt.

"You're talking about a very, very small pocket of Melbourne," Century 21 Caulfield agent Lionel Liebowitz said.

    * REIV: Auction results
    * Map: Melbourne house prices, suburb by suburb

He said there were few auctions in Balaclava, which has a population of a few thousand and covers just 80 hectares.

"Whereas in Caulfield you have eight or nine or 10 a week."

Agents might also hold back from disclosing results when they don't make a sale, he said.

"It's not a true reflection," Mr Liebowitz said.

While pocket suburbs may not be quite as desirable as the statistics show, the figures reveal the areas they sit in are running hot. Balaclava's bigger neighbour, St Kilda, which has a population of more than 16,000 and covers 3.2sq km, saw 106 auction successes out of 122, for a clearance rate of 86.9 per cent.

And suburbs close to Clifton Hill, such as Collingwood and Northcote, are recording clearance rates of more than 90 per cent.

"Northcote has been starving for stock," said Hocking Stuart Carlton director Scott McElroy. "There have been a number of weekends where there have been no auctions at all - it's just crazy."

He said many buyers were cashed up and looking to move out of cramped, but valuable, inner-city digs.

"The next progression out is always pretty hot," he said.

Results were exceeding expectations in Collingwood, with its clearance rate of 94 per cent, he said.

"Collingwood is the new Fitzroy - it's probably hotter than Fitzroy at the moment. We're seeing a lot of results that have exceeded expectations."

East Melbourne came in third with 29 of 30 auctions successful.

It is another small suburb, with about 4300 residents over 1sq km.

REIV spokesman Robert Larocca said small suburbs were attractive to buyers because they offered "a unique home in a unique location".

"It's also pleasing to see somewhere more affordable like Greensborough up there with a clearance rate above 90 per cent," he said.

Melbourne's market continued to soar at the weekend, with a clearance rate of 84 per cent, the 17th weekend in a row it has been over 80 per cent.

BigW

如果看了国内的房价，就感觉墨尔本的房价再翻几番也没问题啊。

patricb

"炙手可热"就现在来说不夸张，和07/08年那一轮相比毫不逊色

garysu

最近看了一下，发现真的要主动给超过asking price的才能拿到合意的房子，还是远远的观望好

jianten

好帖子阿，最近看房子看到好烦，真的想不买算了。你们说什么翻倍，我就是不信vermon south的房子过几年翻到1m以上！！！

frankielynna

租房也是一种方式。不过房价的问题，真的很难预测。看看中国3大城市的房价，你都看不懂。当然澳洲不会这样，但长期的趋势还是稳步上升的。

lifejoy

我妈妈当年一直嫌弃上海的房子贵。。。一直不肯买。。。从97年看到2006年，内环的房子从4000看到了30000都没买。。。她一直不相信上海的房子会一直涨。。事实是 一直在涨。后来2006年终于在中山公园抢了一套房子，现在2009年比当年的价格又翻了一番。。。

     以事实说话，其实任何时候，能买的起房子就赶快买。买房子不穷，卖房子不富。老祖宗的话绝对没错的。

wsedr

原帖由 liuhaiyang 于 2009-8-18 14:07 发表
几年前我第一次买房的时候，有朋友就是持反对意见，说几年前如何如何，我和他们说不要看以前，就看现在的悉尼，墨尔本的房价不会比悉尼低，至少是持平，悉尼的平均房价是多少，墨尔本就将是多少，这是几年前的事，按现在墨尔本的趋势，看来我当时的狂言有被应验的可能

既然是论坛，大家就大胆的论，我预言，墨尔本15公里圈内的绝大多数区的平均地价将是2000每平，那些传统的好区名区将会稳站3000每平，墨尔本的平均房价将是80万+

关于这个问题，小弟有一些不太成熟的看法，绝对没有恶意。

个人认为，悉尼的房价还是会高于墨尔本的，而且是一直都是，除非悉尼有了什么核泄漏之类的事件。我住在墨尔本。

悉尼的地理位置决定了这点。她的周围除了海就基本是大的国家森林公园，都是不能利用的。这可能也是为什么悉尼上下都有两个大的卫星城。而墨尔本，四周没什么阻碍，可以一直继续摊煎饼果子，越摊越大。而且她的卫星城，没有一个成了气候，最方便地方的还是 city 或 city 周边的一些区。所以，我觉得因为未来的大墨尔本地区太大了，她以后的容量要远超过悉尼，所以，平均价格应该不会超过悉尼，而且，悉尼有可能会因为贵所以越来越贵。。。

当然，墨尔本如果真的摊大饼的话，确实是很不健康的。不过，就看当局怎么解决了。虽然在 02 - 30 年的规划中有了很多新 city，比如 box hill， chadston （在 malvern east）和 doncaster 等等，可是我不是非常看好。因为他们离 melb CBD 太近了，除非在条件几乎相同的情况下，否则我还不如坐半个多小时的火车去 city 呢，各种 facility 都更好。。。

我觉得，以后的墨尔本应该是澳洲的最大城市，而且也是最拥挤的城市。。。

wsedr

原帖由 liuhaiyang 于 2009-8-21 10:58 发表
...
我现在有自己看好的几个区，可惜口袋里钱不够。

分享下你的好区吧，一定加分！！！

wsedr

原帖由 jianten 于 2009-9-8 23:07 发表
好帖子阿，最近看房子看到好烦，真的想不买算了。你们说什么翻倍，我就是不信vermon south的房子过几年翻到1m以上！！！

当然可能啦，只不过可能时间要长一些，而且当时后澳洲的平均工资可能涨到让你觉得——“怎么也得买个100万的房子吧”的想法喽！

西蒙

悉尼会往高处发展，人口密度会增加。
你慢慢会看到悉尼的高层住宅会越来越多，变得跟上海徐家汇差不多。
我希望悉尼是最大的城市，人口越多越好。
墨尔本就别再弄大了，现在人口数量挺好，再多就乱了。

Fernando

墨尔本附近的水资源够养活多少人？

luckynumber

上海的房价。。赤脚也赶不上了，早知今日何必当初。。。。。。

patricb

原帖由 wsedr 于 2009-9-9 12:09 发表


关于这个问题，小弟有一些不太成熟的看法，绝对没有恶意。

个人认为，悉尼的房价还是会高于墨尔本的，而且是一直都是，除非悉尼有了什么核泄漏之类的事件。我住在墨尔本。

悉尼的地理位置决定了这点。她的 ...

部分同意。关于两地的房价趋势我没什么看法。但从城市发展来说，悉尼确实有卫星城的好处，墨尔本则历来是摊大饼。但是已经意识到摊大饼的恶果，所以才有了2030规划，基本的想法就是限制城区的扩张，而是在重点区域增加密度向上发展。但真正实施起来难度很大，一来这些重点区域缺乏可用土地，二来受到地方政府和居民的反对。box hill就是一个例子开发商要造30多层大厦，被council否决，现在要到vcat打官司，因为开发商觉得这符合州政府的规划。退一步说，就算这栋造起来，还有多少地皮可以再造，这里又不是国内，能随便动迁，炸楼。卫星城不容易啊！
还有就是好像听说墨尔本的人口增加速度超过悉尼，未来总人口可能更高，对房价也有影响。

patricb

原帖由 西蒙 于 2009-9-9 13:28 发表
悉尼会往高处发展，人口密度会增加。
你慢慢会看到悉尼的高层住宅会越来越多，变得跟上海徐家汇差不多。
我希望悉尼是最大的城市，人口越多越好。
墨尔本就别再弄大了，现在人口数量挺好，再多就乱了。

墨尔本的高楼也会增加的很快，人口也会大量增长。

phoebe0616

原帖由 林草123 于 2009-8-26 23:13 发表
我的同学5年前在M WAVELY买了个房子,37万五买的,现在都起码50万以上了.但是他也说了，自住又不卖,还是看不到钱啊,卖了住哪啊?呵呵.

自住不卖可以做mortgage啊，贷出来钱就可以买投资房了，怕什么？怕你第二套房会把第一套房亏掉？

我还有一个认知，不知道对不对。就是一群人抢的区，除非你银子丰厚，要不还是不要看了，就像股票一样，追涨的股往往会被套， 即便是在长线看涨的前提下。多转转，多在网上找找资料，买有potential区。20几万的房子涨到40万比50万涨到60万回报率还是很不同的。不要人云亦云，人家都说不好的区，最好自己去看看，真的不好么？不好在哪里？包头的真的像大家说的那么多？ anyway，这只是看了几个月的房总结下来的一点粗浅见解。

[ 本帖最后由 phoebe0616 于 2009-9-10 14:13 编辑 ]

Melbourner1978

原帖由 phoebe0616 于 2009-9-10 14:10 发表

自住不卖可以做mortgage啊，贷出来钱就可以买投资房了，怕什么？怕你第二套房会把第一套房亏掉？

我还有一个认知，不知道对不对。就是一群人抢的区，除非你银子丰厚，要不还是不要看了，就像股票一样，追涨的股 ...

我倒不这么看，这边还是市场经济，讲究供求关系，人人抢的地方肯定是有道理的，而且买potential区也是有一定风险的，也跟买股票一样，当然赌对了，赚回来的肯定多，不过选择房产投资的都是比较稳健的人士，这么玩的比较少。