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本帖最后由 Hetbert 于 2021-8-26 01:59 编辑
莫里森要求开放的70%的16岁以上人口，就是56%的澳洲人口。
看看现在的52%人口完全接种的美国，按人口平均后的新冠死亡率还是50倍澳洲，就知道70%的16+人口接种率够不够了。
真不要脸，Grattan Institute给National Cabinet建的数学模型，说的很明白，需要80%的全部人口完全接种，才能安全开放, 再低就是拿人命去赌博。
不合联盟党政府的政治需要，让 Doherty Institute再做一个，好多不切实际的统计假设，得出一个70%的16+人口。。。
https://grattan.edu.au/news/race ... the-covid-crisis-2/
Grattan模型的疫苗接种率的分母，是全体澳洲人，不是16+
But new Grattan Institute modelling shows it would be dangerous for Australia to open up before at least 80% of the population is vaccinated.
You can see why we recommend Australia not open up until at least 80% of the population is vaccinated – it is the only scenario where the virus is managed, with hospitalisations and deaths kept down to reasonable levels, even if the Reff is high.
Our simulations show that opening up at 50% vaccination rate (scenario 1) is a very bad idea, with many, many thousands of deaths.
Scenarios 2 and 3 are the optimist’s and gambler’s scenarios. If you are lucky and the Reff of Delta in Australia is 4 (with 70% vaccination rate) or 5 (with 75% vaccination rate), deaths and hospitalisations would not rise above moderate levels, and lockdowns could end and the borders could reopen.
But if you gambled on the wrong Reff, our hospitals would be overwhelmed and deaths would be unacceptably high. Opening the borders is a one-shot gamble: if you make the wrong call, the virus will quickly spread and all the good work and hard yards of living through lock-downs over the previous two years will have been wasted. |
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尘封的深蓝 (2008-10-11) 沅 
楼主:edith921
发表于 2021-8-25 19:24
发表于 2021-8-26 12:37
