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China to revalue yuan 'soon'
By Geoffrey Newman
May 06, 2005
From:
THE revaluation of China's currency is imminent, according to at least one investment bank -- and most economists predict it will be of benefit to the Australian economy and prolong the resources boom.
JP Morgan economists said yesterday that China was on the verge of allowing the yuan to appreciate, "perhaps as early as this week".
China currently pegs the yuan at the rate of 8.277 to the US dollar by buying the greenback and other currencies and selling its own to keep downward pressure on the yuan. Any change to the peg would be the first in a decade.
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China's peg has given its exporters a huge competitive advantage against other countries but has created imbalances in its economy.
The Chinese Government has also been under intense pressure, particularly from the US, to allow its currency to appreciate. Some estimate the yuan is 40 per cent undervalued.
Renewed speculation of a move was sparked on Friday when the yuan suddenly rose above the tight 0.3 per cent trading range the Chinese authorities allow, suggesting the Chinese were testing market reaction.
However, Finance Minister Jin Renqing said yesterday that although China was determined to reform the yuan currency regime, intense market speculation on the exchange rate made it very difficult for Beijing to move now.
JP Morgan said Australia's commodity exports should be boosted when the peg is relaxed because Australian exports would become cheaper for Chinese buyers. Chinese imports into Australia would also become more expensive, thus having a positive impact in the long term on Australia's trade deficit, which blew out to $2.7 billion in March.
The effect would be magnified because a higher yuan would allow other Asian countries, which have also kept their currencies artificially low to compete with China, to relax controls on their currencies.
On the negative side, the bank said higher prices on Chinese imported goods would lead to a small rise in Australia's inflation rate, and market interest rates would also rise in sympathy with rising bond yields offshore.
"China may export inflation instead of deflation," JP Morgan said.
The Australian dollar would fall initially but would then rise because of the improving trade and current account deficits and market expectations that China would diversify its foreign currency holdings into currencies like the dollar. However, HSBC chief economist John Edwards said the revaluation would harm the Australian economy in the short term because he expected a sharp fall in the US dollar as Asian countries bought fewer US Treasury bonds to keep their currencies low.
This should push the Australian dollar above US80c, he said, which would hurt Australia's export competitiveness.
However, ABN Amro Morgans chief economist Michael Knox said food prices in China were not yet high enough to force the Chinese to lower the price of imported food by raising the value of the yuan. |
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