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The bear case:
*PROPERTY prices have softened in the US and Europe so they are likely to here.
*AUSTRALIA has just been judged to have some of the least affordable housing in the world by the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.
*HOUSING loans are getting tougher to get as the more conservative major banks take back market share from the non-bank lenders.
*RISING interest rates will further deter buyers, who will want lower prices to get them over the line.
*RISING rates could also force foreclosures or sales by some home owners on the edge.
*CAPITAL city house prices have been rising relative to average earnings.
*HOUSING debt as a percentage of disposable income has also been rising for many years.
*THE Economist has long been warning that Australian house prices are in a bubble and need to fall by 20 to 30 per cent before rental earning ratios make sense.
The bull case:
*UNLIKE the US in particular, there is no evidence of a housing oversupply in Australia - if anything, there is a shortage.
*THERE is also no widespread equivalent to the sub-prime mortgage crisis in Australia.
*RENTS are rising, lending support to the investor side of the market.
*IMMIGRATION and falling household sizes have added to fundamental housing demand.
*INCOMES have been rising strongly for several years, allowing borrowers to easily cope with increased repayments.
*TRADITIONALLY, a weak market causes money to flow into property as investors seek the perceived stability of bricks and mortar. |
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来澳一周年记念（打工篇） (2005-7-13) 飞儿 
发表于 2008-1-25 09:51
