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Westpac is likely to offer $35.00 worth of its scrip for each St George Bank share, or about $20 billion, if a merger proposal announced by the two banks today proceeds.
Analysts said it was unlikely the merger would be blocked for competition or political reasons.
"A 30% premium is normally the rule of thumb,'' Pattersons Securities banking analyst Mark Topy said. "35% would be a knock-out, but if it comes in at 20-25%, it means it will be a slower and more painful process.
St George shares, which are currently in a trading halt, last closed at $26.65.
A 30% premium would value them at $34.65.
Bell Potter Brisbane senior adviser Stuart Smith said a good indication of a bid price could be the issue price of a St George equity raising conducted last November of $35.00 a share.
"That might give us an idea of where it will be pitched,'' Mr Smith said.
An offer of $35.00 a share would value St George at $19.64 billion.
Mr Smith said Westpac may have moved on St George because it felt the Federal Government would not abolish the Four Pillars policy, which prevents Australia's top four banks from merging.
St George is the country's fifth biggest bank.
Mr Smith said he thought there was a good chance a merger between Westpac and St George would get over the line.
"Because the banks have been talking about the four pillars policy for such a long time, they've now taken it into their own hands to try and bulk up so that they can compete on the international stage,'' Mr Smith said.
"It would appear that they may have sounded out the government on this, or it may have been very plain that the four pillars will stay, so this is the way to bulk up.''
Patterson's Mr Topy said he did not think there would be any political hurdles preventing the merger from proceeding.
"It's not a four pillar issue and St George was the last big bite in a sense,'' Mr Topy said.
Mr Topy said political intervention blocking a deal would send the wrong signal to the market.
"It's not a serious diminution of competition even in New South Wales,'' he said. "You've still got five banks there, you've got BankWest coming in.''
If there was to be a competition issue, Mr Topy said it could emerge in the investment platform space.
Westpac with its BT Wrap investment platform and St George with its Asgard platform are two of the biggest platform providers in the market.
"I'd wonder whether the regulators would have a look at that one,'' Mr Topy said. |
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