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G姐和阿伯2011年底前肯定在位 有关碳税和船民的辩论使得G姐和阿伯2011年底前肯定在位 The next scheduled political killing season is December, 2012. It might be that nobody will be "killed" when the season does finally come around. But it's surely true that nobody will be "killed" before then. The last month of the year before a federal election the following year has traditionally been a tough time for political leaders - particularly those in opposition. That's because the parliamentary parties usually judge that the end of the year is really the last opportunity to tidy up the leadership arrangements before the long election campaign begins. This time around it makes perfect sense for the Coalition and Labor to hold off on any assessment of their respective leaders until that time. It's not just a question of holding their nerve. The fact is they can't make a sensible judgment until then. That's because the judgment will centre on one issue - climate change. Both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott are hostage to the outcome of the debate on a carbon tax and an ETS. And on both sides of politics, those deciding whether to "kill" or not, will need to see that policy in action; implemented and working for nearly six months before they know for sure the sustained political impact. As most of them see it, the debate has to go through three crucial stages before the dust settles and opinions start to solidify. The first will come early next month when the details of the scheme - and the compensation arrangements - are announced. If the government does it jobs, that's the time when a lot of Australians will learn for the first time that the carbon tax does not apply directly to them. That will be a significant media opportunity, with the government conducting a "lock-up" in the style of a budget. The second will be a year later when the scheme is finally implemented. And the third - and far and away the most important stage - is the six months after that when the reality of the scheme takes over from the rhetoric. By the end of 2012 the public will have experienced the policy for themselves, free of anything politicians might have said. They will be in a far better position to judge whether the tax on the polluters and the subsequent passing on of costs to consumers was worthwhile, and whether the compensation was adequate. The Coalition, of course, will still have an impact talking up the rising costs as they happen. And if key countries are not moving in broadly the same direction by then, they'll have plenty of armoury left. But nevertheless the government should be incrementally better placed to prosecute the case for a carbon tax as each stage comes and goes. The low water mark for Julia Gillard was undoubtedly the initial announcement, because she had to backtrack on commitments given before the election. That allowed the opposition to label it a policy built on a lie. The government - and the Prime Minister - was badly damaged by that. However, much of that will have washed through the system by next year. By then the debate will come down to two issues - the science, where the government is ahead - and the government's plan versus the opposition's plan. How that debate will go is harder to judge because so far there has been no real community engagement on what it is that opposition proposes. By the end of 2012, the opposition might be finding it harder to explain how they will dismantle the scheme and take away the tax cuts that came with it. It won't be easy persuading the electorate that they can raise taxes again because prices will assuredly come down. In the past two weeks the sands seem to have shifted ever so gently under the carbon tax debate. Suddenly government inspired information rather than opposition rhetoric seems to head the coverage. That just might be the beginning of a trend. Dennis Atkins writing in the Courier Mail likened the debate to the gestation period of a common frilled shark. Apparently they take three and half years to give birth. That's about the most optimistic time frame for the government as well. But the prospects for a successful birth will be clear enough by the end of next year, just in time for the "killing" season. Nobody will be killed, necessarily. But if the government has made no headway at all, then of course anything is possible on the Labor side. On the other hand, if the climate change debate swings in the government's favour, Tony Abbott will have nothing else going for him. He has placed so much faith on the two big government negatives - the carbon tax and the boats. There are already signs that the sting has gone out of the asylum seekers debate with the Malaysian solution sending a clear and unambiguous message to both people smugglers and those contemplating the dangerous journey by boat. If the carbon tax loses its potency as well, Abbott will be suddenly threadbare. If the twin planks of 2011 collapse underneath him in the next 18 months, then the killing season could deliver yet again. But - as so many of the players insist - nobody can judge that for sure until December, 2012. |
