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我认同三个观点，即澳元将由于中国经济放缓而受到压力，上海及中国东南沿海的房价将有大幅下跌，全球通涨压力将减轻，澳洲加息压力随之消失。 对策：沽澳元，矿业类股票，买澳洲长债 Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach believes the world should prepare for the increasing possibility of a meaningful slowdown of the Chinese economy. Here are the key points from Roach's May 23rd piece entitled "What if China Slows?": Economic Growth * Supply-side numbers remain strong. * Re-acceleration of industrial output growth to 16.0% year-over-year (y-o-y) in April 2005. * Chinese GDP growth trajectory held at 9.5% in Q1 2005. * Momentum continues to be driven by surging Chinese exports. * Industrial output for exports estimated to have risen 29.9% y-o-y in April. * Chinese exports grew 32% y-o-y in April. * Fixed investment grew 26% this year through April. * While fixed investment growth is lower than the 40% comparisons of a year ago, they exceed the government’s official 16% growth target for the sector. * Fixed investment sector on track to exceed 50% of Chinese GDP this year. Demand Side Shows Discomforting Signs * Evidence of a sharp slowdown in Chinese import growth. * From Jan-April 2005 y-o-y import growth was 13.5% versus 36% in all of 2004. * This has implications for the rest of the region, which provides China with capital equipment and intermediate inputs for its export businesses. Chinese Import Growth Fuels Pan-Asian Exports * 20% of total exports from Korea, Taiwan, and Japan go to China (Singapore - 10%). * Slowdown in Chinese import growth is already affecting Asia. * In Taiwan, export growth slipped to just 1.2% y-o-y in Q1 2005. * Japan's exports showed a -0.8% q-o-q, annualized export decline in Q1 2005. * Hong Kong (+3.5% y-o-y in March), Korea (+7.4% in Q1 2005), and Singapore (+6.2% in March for non-oil domestic exports). * In all of the countries mentioned above, the latest export comparisons represent a sharp deceleration from gains six months ago, when the Chinese import boom was cresting. China's Import Slowdown Affecting Commodity Inflation * This reflects China’s dominant role in driving world demand for industrial materials. * Morgan estimates that China accounted for 8% of global consumption of crude oil, 20% of aluminum, and 30-35% of steel, iron, and coal. * Deceleration of Chinese imports has been accompanied by a sharp deceleration of non-oil commodity inflation. * The Journal of Commerce composite index of industrial materials is now down 3% y-o-y through May 20. Peak increases of close to 35% in early 2004. * Commodity prices are one of the best real-time gauges of the interplay between global supply and demand. * Emergence of negative comparisons for industrial commodity prices could well be a good leading indicator of further weakness to come in Chinese industrial activity. Efforts to Curb the Property Bubble * China's recent restraints on both supply and demand could finally lead to a bursting of coastal China’s property bubble. * This could also lead to a meaningful slowing of growth in fixed asset investment. * Fixed asset investment accounted for 44% of total Chinese GDP in 2004. * Fixed asset investment was still growing at a 26.5% y-o-y rate in April 2005. * Like exports, fixed asset investment is also accounting for about 11 percentage points of annualized Chinese GDP growth. * Every ten percentage points of slowing in residential property investment could knock about one percentage point off total Chinese GDP growth. Chinese GDP Growth Risks * Externally-imposed constraints on exports. * Internally-imposed restraints on property investment. Roach Believes China's Policymakers will be Cautious * Could mean a delay on currency reform. * China’s new export taxes on textile products suggests that it may prefer tax policy over revaluation in order to restrain exports. * Despite China’s intentions to manage its export problems, the US, which accounts for about 33% of total Chinese exports, seems prepared to make changes themselves. Key Deficiencies of China’s Growth Model * Excess reliance on exports and fixed investment. * With little private consumption, the Chinese economy is vulnerable to shortfalls in either of these sectors. * Private consumption accounts for only 42% of China's GDP. Conclusion * Conceivable there could be a meaningful slowing of the Chinese economy. * It is likely to be driven by China’s internal measures as well as by anti-China actions. * If that occurs, China’s Asian supply chain should be especially hard hit. * A China slowdown could also result in further downward pressures on commodity prices of oil and non-oil industrial materials. * Could also temper inflationary expectations embedded in global bond markets. * If there is a delay in revaluation, pressure on the US dollar could be tempered. Why Now * New and more difficult challenges today than before. * Property bubble is an increasingly worrisome source of internal instability. * The currency-export nexus has become an increasingly intractable source of external instability. * China faces growing pressures to make change. According to Roach: ....This time, it will be much tougher for China to avoid a meaningful slowdown. It’s time for the rest of the world to prepare for just such a possibility. |
