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昨天三个独立议员开出了他们谈判的前提，双方为这三个议员提供在制定些方面的信息。也就是大家都在谈论的七项要求。
其中第二点是要求国库对工党和联盟党的各项承诺作出预算评估。
这封信的内容如下：
TO JULIA GILLARD and TONY ABBOTT
Requests for information
1. We seek access to information under the ‘caretaker conventions’ to economic advice from the Secretary of the Treasury Ken Henry and Secretary of Finance David Tune, including the costings and impacts of Government and Opposition election promises and policies on the budget.
2. We seek briefings from the following Secretaries of Departments:
1. Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy
2. Health and Ageing
3. Education, Employment and Workplace Relations
4. Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government
5. Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
6. Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Water
7. Defence
8. Resources, Energy and Tourism
3. We seek briefings from caretaker Ministers and Shadow Ministers in the above portfolio areas to discuss their program for the next three years.
4. We seek advice as soon as possible on their plans to work with the Clerks of the Parliament to improve the status and authority of all 150 local MP’s within parliamentary procedures and structures. In particular, we seek advice on timelines and actions for increasing the authority of the Committee system, private members business and private members bills, matters of public importance, 90 second statements, adjournment debates, and question time.
5. We seek a commitment to explore all options from both sides in regard “consensus options” for the next three years, and a willingness to at least explore all options to reach a majority greater than 76 for the next three years. Included in these considerations is advice on how relationships between the House of Representatives and the Senate can be improved, and a proposed timetable for this to happen.
6. We seek a commitment in writing as soon as possible that if negotiations are to take place on how to form Government, that each of these leaders, their Coalition partners, and all their affiliated MP’s, will negotiate in good faith and with the national interest as the only interest. In this same letter of comfort, we seek a written commitment that whoever forms majority Government will commit to a full three year term, and for an explanation in writing in this same letter as to how this commitment to a full term will be fulfilled, either by enabling legislation or other means.
7. We seek advice as soon as possible on a timetable and reform plan for political donations, electoral funding, and truth in advertising reform, and a timetable for how this reform plan will be achieved in co-operation with the support of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The three non-aligned MP’s will now be heading home to families, electorate duties, and a long-standing appointment with the Governor-General (unrelated to this political deadlock). We have agreed to be back in Canberra on Monday for the full week of meetings in relation to the above. We expect all the above information to be made available through best endeavours as soon as possible,
so that formal negotiations with all stakeholders can begin by Friday 3rd September – if, based on final counts, negotiations are indeed needed at all.
代理总理Julia Gillard回复的姿态非常明确：满足一切要求。但是反对党领袖Tony Abbott的做法却让人费解。他非常直接的拒绝了国库对联盟党承诺进行预算评估的要求。这让谈判已开始就进入了僵持局面。我们不妨来分析一下他这么做的动机吧。
从看到这个事件的第一反应是：联盟党曾经给出的关于他们的由第三方给出的预算评估有问题，而且问题可能还很大。反正伸头是一刀，缩头也是一刀。干脆做得强硬点。
第二个想到的可能性是：Tony Abbott更不不想谈判。他在等。等到选举结果明朗了以后再做决断。他在赌。赌最终联盟党的席位要大于工党，这样这三个独立议员就必须支持联盟党。因为他知道如果是双方的票一样多，工党上台的机会远远高过自己。当初联盟党实在是把这几个独立议员给得罪大发了。Too much bad blood between the independents and Nats/Libs。但是如果联盟党能够最终得到比工党多1个席位那么联盟党组阁的机会就比工党高很多，那几个独立议员就必须和联盟党合作。到时候Tony Abbott就能够拿到主动权。如果联盟党真的拿到比工党多1个席位，那么全国人民可能不会愿意再选一次。不管谁让组阁失败都会被选民们鄙视。所以到时候这三个独立议员就算不愿意也必须尽量和联盟党合作。
今天早上又听到了第三个可能性：Tony Abbott明白就是组成了政府也是一个很不稳定的政府。谁也做不好，而且也可能很快就会解体。干脆让工党上台，再看他们倒台。到时候选民们一定拿工党出气。他Tony Abbott就能在下一个选举里以绝对优势取胜。必须说这个可能性不是没有，而且Tony Abbott作为反对党领袖来说还是很称职的。唯一的问题是，他Tony Abbott能不能保证到下次选举前不被人搞下台？
现在的形式是工党和联盟党的席位是71:71，一个绿党，加上4个独立议员。三个未决的席位里，自由党和工党可能各拿一个。如果自由党拿下第三个席位那么自由党就比工党领先（73：72：1：4），组阁的机会也就大一点。当然了工党和绿党是铁哥们。其实也就是73:73:4的样子。所以怎么看自由党都是不利。这么看第三个可能性还是很大的。Tony这是欲擒还纵，大大的坏啦。
[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2010-8-26 12:22 编辑 ] |
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老陶家常菜 （二） (2010-3-20) 老陶 
发表于 2010-8-26 12:45
