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澳洲的经济命运现在全指望中国了
Australian economy's fate now rests with china
Terry McCrann
23 August 2011
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/terry-mccrann-australian-economys-fate-now-rests-with-china/story-e6frez7r-1226119744581
In 2008 we were very lucky, to have our economy tied to China. Our superannuation might have been shredded by the global financial meltdown that started on Wall St.
2008年我们真的是非常地走运，要不是澳洲经济与中国紧紧相连，咱们的退休金可就要随着从华尔街开始的全球金融崩溃彻底化为浮云。
But our basic economy, what gives us jobs and a weekly pay cheque, kept powering on after an initial and relatively short shudder.
幸亏为我们提供就业和每周一份薪水的澳洲基本经济在一开始短暂地抖了几下后就镇定了，继续开足马力继续前进。
Didn't Kevin Rudd and then-treasury secretary Ken Henry's "go hard, go early, go households" spending splurge and the Reserve Bank slashing interest rates save us?
Sure, they helped. But exactly those same things happened in every country.
也许你要问，难道不是陆克文和当时的财政部秘书肯亨利“多发钱，早发钱，把钱送进家家户户”的铺张刺激政策和储行的大力减息救了我们吗？当然，有他们一份功劳。但确切地说，当时世界上的每一个国家都在这么做。
The US, for example, had a budget deficit more than twice as big as ours in relation to its economy. And still has - that's what the squabble over the debt ceiling was all about.
And they slashed interest rates all the way to zero. They're still there. Indeed, the Fed has promised to keep them at zero until at least 2013.
But their jobless rate is double ours. And much the same mix of woe applies across most of Europe.
比方说，美国吧，他们的赤字占国民经济之比是澳洲的两倍多，至今依旧---这就是共和党和民主党吵架的全部原因。
他们还把官方利率一直降到了0。现在还是0。事实上，美联储已经承诺要把0利率至少保持到2013年。(澳洲的基准利率是4.75%，存款利率6%，欧洲是1.5%)
可他们的失业率是我们的两倍。欧洲的绝大多数国家也都同时采取了财政和货币政策的双重经济刺激。
The defining difference is China. We have Chinese demand for our resources. They haven't.
决定性的不同点就是中国。我们有中国需要的资源，而他们没有。
We should be saying a silent Confucian prayer in Mandarin each night that China keeps on keeping on. If we needed China in 2008, we really need it today, even if it causes difficulties with a two-speed economy.
想到这里，我们真该每天晚上临睡前用汉语默念一段孔夫子祷词，祈求中国万古常青，永世不衰。如果2008年时我们需要中国，那么今天我们就真的特别需要中国，即便澳洲棘手的双速经济难题都是中国惹的祸。
It's much better having to try to grapple with the challenges of uneven prosperity than uneven or, for that matter, balanced economic poverty. Look at the US. Look at Greece.
看看美国，再看看希腊。您不觉得试着去抓住让一部份人先不平等地富着的机遇，总比让大家都平等地一样挨穷要好得多么？
Yes, we are back to waking up each morning to a financial world made overnight on Wall St. But it's what's happening in China that's really important to us.
没错，我们依然生活在一个每天早晨两眼一睁地球都跟着华尔街转的金融世界。但对我们而言，中国现在在干嘛对我们来说才是最重要的。
Even more so, precisely because of that continuing financial turmoil in Europe and the US. It is financial turmoil that either reflects the fact that the US economy is sliding back towards recession, or will actually force it into recession.
确切地说，这也是因为欧美的金融风暴愈演愈烈。这场风暴要么反映了美国经济正在滑向衰退，要么预示了它终将被迫陷入衰退。
But there's a two-edged nature to the China story. We are now even more dependent on China continuing to boom. 中国神话是一柄双刃剑，但现在我们正前所未有地依赖中国来实现持续的繁荣发展。
In part because the developed world - Europe, the US, Japan - looks like being in trouble, or worse, for much longer. In part because we've doubled down even more on China. 部分原因是因为发达国家，如欧洲、美国、日本等经济体，长时间深陷经济衰退而不能自拔。另部分原因是因为我们比以往更加倍依赖于中国。
Also, crucially, because we've wasted much of yesterday's China boom. Our productivity is appalling; it's gone back to pre-1990 levels. We haven't poured the surplus dollars generated into nation-building and industry-building infrastructure.
我们也挥霍了昨日中国兴旺发达带来的大多数财富。我们的生产力骇人听闻：它已经退化到了1990年代前的水平！而且我们还把财政盈余那些年赚到的钱都扔到国家和产业基础设施建设之外的爪哇国去了。
Right now China still looks OK. They've tried to pull their spectacular rate of growth back as they deal with inflation sparked both by domestic pressures and the US's money-printing exercises that have fuelled global food and energy price rises.
现在中国看着是还OK。他们正试着边把高得惊人的经济增长率拽下来，边对付由国内压力和美国的印钞行动导致全球粮食和能源价格上涨造成的通货膨胀。
The financial turmoil of the past fortnight actually helps because it's sent the critically important oil price plunging. 而上两周的金融风暴事实上帮了一把忙，因为这引发了关键进口原料石油的价格暴跌。
Yes, we are likely to start the week as we finished it on Friday, with more turbulence on the share market. Wall St dropped nearly 600 points in the two closing sessions.
And yes, broadly, we will go where Wall St goes, both day-to-day and on a more sustained basis.
本周的股市行情很可能和上周没有什麽两样，证券市场将经历更多的颠簸。华尔街两个交易日重挫了近600点。
One number captured all that volatility, fear and uncertainty - over the week the gold price jumped $US100 to $US1850 and points higher. 有一个数字可以概括所有这些暴涨暴跌、惊慌失措和钱途茫茫---金价一周内暴涨了100美元，升至1850美元并继续向上。
This was unimaginable a few years ago, when gold had never broken through $US1000. Now it seems just a matter of time, days even, before it goes through $US2000. So yes, your superannuation balance will be "made" on Wall St every night. But its real long-term value is being made in China.
这在几年前是根本无法想象的，那个时候，金价从来就不曾突破1000美元。但现在，金价什么时候破2000美元大关看起来似乎只是个时间问题，说不定就是个天数问题。所以咯，您的退休金账面还剩多少钱是每天夜里由华尔街“制造”的，但从长远来看它究竟能值多少钱可就是中国制造了。
That will be shown most vividly when BHP Billiton unveils its profit midweek. It is going to be almost as big as the profits this year of all four big banks combined. Think about that. 等必和必拓公布财报的时候，这一点一定会更加鲜明地表现出来。必和必拓的利润估摸着会和今年四大银行的整体利润差不多吧。仔细想想吧。
BHPB will make almost as much money as the total profit generated by the vast bulk of our entire financial system. The system that services every Australian and every business, including BHPB.
必和必拓挣到的钱，跟我们整个一大块金融体系加起来的利润几乎一样多。而这个金融体系服务于每一个澳洲人，每一家澳洲企业，包括必和必拓。
And it's all, all, because of China. 而这一切的一切，都是因为有中国。 |
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2015 蓝山秋天游,仙境般的雾中的红叶美景 更新几张LD的照片 (2015-5-1) jmms_smmj 
发表于 2011-8-24 19:13
有道理
