大选计票实时跟踪贴

2bnot2b

原帖由 skean912 于 2010-8-21 22:59 发表


什么情况下会重选呢?

If Labor manages to scrape together 73 seats and the Coalition manage to get 72, with the remaining 5 seats fairly securely now split between 3 conservative rural independents and 2 greens the following will happen:

The Greens (Bandt & Wilkie) will want to support Labor and the Rural Independents (Windsor, Katter, Oakeshott) most likely support the Coalition.  So 73+2 vs 72+3

It's a stalemate.

It's impossible to see the Greens supporting Abbott as PM, or Gillard managing a cobbled together minority government containing both Greens and the likes of Bob Katter.

This will literally come down to just a handful of votes in a handful of seats.  Maybe just 500 peoples' votes will determine the final result.

And if it is 75 : 75, expect both Gillard and Abbott to tell the Governor General that they can't form a government and we'll be back at the polls inside three months.

Even if the Coalition want to green themselves up by say appointing Turnbull as their leader and potential PM, the Queensland nationals and independents won't wear it.

Devil_Star

原帖由 to_au 于 2010-8-21 23:00 发表
唉， 如果联盟赢了， 那些Wind Farm和Solar的项目要杯具了

RENEWABLE ENERGY CREDITS能涨就行， 之前RECS就是被工党的家用太阳能计划害得滑铁卢的， 当时2009年， WIND, SOLAR和GEOTHERMAL全都杯具～

wdmznzd

原帖由 skean912 于 2010-8-21 22:59 发表


什么情况下会重选呢?

两大党都不会愿意受制于独立议员和绿党，不管谁组阁都有可能提前大选以取得单独组阁权

astina

Julia马上要出来了，接着是Tony

mxgong

HUNG 其实对联盟党有利。

dpcw

原帖由 to_au 于 2010-8-21 22:57 发表
看来下届洲政府选举， NSW和QLD都肯定变天了

昆州人对anna bligh实在没有好感，她是一定会下台的。

紫萱

Julia要出来了

001

看来HUNG 成定局了。不知道赌庄怎么算

astina

Here is Julia Gillard

2bnot2b

原帖由 astina 于 2010-8-21 22:57 发表

重选不是没可能，可是那要多花多少钱阿

The cost of the 2007 Federal Election jumped from the $117m cost in 2004 up to $163m.
If those costs jump at the same rate, then the 2010 Election will rise to $227m.
That would work out at about $16.35 per person.  Makes me think that we should at least get a FREE sausage sizzle when we vote

Source: ABC Diamond.

Costs include administration by the AEC, travel costs for MP's and staff (especially major party leaders) + public funding (ie $2.30 per vote to parties getting over 4% of the vote)

On top of this you can add the costs of covering ot to the media organisations, and the political parties themselves would spend something like $50 million each...

Makes you think

pandaz

出来了啊

Wangmingtaoau

根据目前的结果，最有可能的结果是 联盟党将与独立参选人达成协议组成政府， Tony Abbott 将会是下届总理。联盟党的 72/3 议席加上独立候选人的3/4议席将达到组成政府的76议席。

[ 本帖最后由 Wangmingtaoau 于 2010-8-21 23:31 编辑 ]

astina

笑的确实有点假

2bnot2b

She starts with a good line though...

001

Julia仍然很幽默

to_au

很无奈啊

t22861

我日的。。。几个网站的统计都相反的。。。看谁的啊。。

astina

原帖由 2bnot2b 于 2010-8-21 23:14 发表
She starts with a good line though...

对，很impressed

qunlbao

还得统计几天,没戏了,去睡觉了

astina

确实口才出众大方得体

BOC

Julia向independent抛橄榄枝

widelink

其实我感觉工党没有像某人说,的那样很失败; 我要是J姐，坚决不大选，自己给工党1-2年时间，一般小民哪有时间去持续关注政治，万一经济有转机，到时人气也上来啦

astina

大家注意到没有Julia的语调和她竞选时发言的语调很不同了，现在的讲话比较不象robot

001

如果这个女人不能当选，下一个女总理，不知道猴年马月。

astina

原帖由 widelink 于 2010-8-21 23:16 发表
其实我感觉工党没有像某人说,的那样很失败; 我要是J姐，坚决不大选，自己给工党1-2年时间，一般小民哪有时间去持续关注政治，万一经济有转机，到时人气也上来啦 ...

怎么可以坚决不大选，3年一选是法律规定的

qunlbao

时间拖的越长对工党越不利,工党的愚蠢就暴露的越明显

BOC

工党哪有那么长的任期，最迟到明年初必须进行选举

t_guoguo

原帖由 astina 于 2010-8-21 23:17 发表
大家注意到没有Julia的语调和她竞选时发言的语调很不同了，现在的讲话比较不象robot

没有觉得她以前说话像robot

rb

今年的大选真觉得是个闹剧。

astina

原帖由 001 于 2010-8-21 23:17 发表
如果这个女人不能当选，下一个女总理，不知道猴年马月。

true,Julia确实是人中龙凤，但是是否timing不太好