日本外汇基金可能使澳元继续升值。

黑山老妖

The Australian 新闻
续上周日本一个30亿元的外汇基金开始运作后，下周起又一110亿元的日本外汇投资基金将入市。主要投资为高息货币。澳元可能因此上扬。

Japanese fund to bolster the dollar

    * Scott Murdoch
    * June 23, 2007

THE dollar is expected to be supported next week by the launch in Japan of an $11 billion retail fund to invest in high-yield currencies.

Currency analysts are convinced that the capital outflows from Japan are one of the reasons for the dollar's current height.

It is understood that a number of retail funds are starting up with capital injections from ordinary shareholders.

A fund worth $US3 billion ($3.5 billion) is thought to have started trading this week.

The funds are being established to direct cash into high-yielding currencies, so the Australian and New Zealand dollars will be likely targets.

Last night, the dollar was close to breaking the historic Y105 barrier - which has surprised traders.

Against the greenback, the domestic currency was at US84.69c, as investors questioned whether it had the strength to smash through US85c.

ANZ senior currency strategist Tony Morriss said the traditional factors of commodity prices and steady interest rates in Australia should be weighing down the domestic currency.

NAB has predicted that the dollar will reach US86c by September, but St George predicts a marked softening by the year's end.

Mr Morriss said the dollar should be pegged back, particularly as gold and oil weaken in global commodity markets.

In the US yesterday, bond yields were mixed as the long end of the curve rose 4 basis points to 5.17 per cent.

The two-year yields were flat but 10-year bond yields were higher because of fears over the collapse of two hedge funds operated by Bear Stearns.

The differential between the two-year and 10-year swaps curve is now at 21 basis points - the steepest in almost two years.

St George, in its regular currency outlook, said the dollar had defied its forecasts as it had rallied 3.4 per cent since the beginning of April.

Chief economist Steve Ryan said the commodity price outlook was giving the dollar renewed strength, despite the forecasts of price weakening.

"The speculation of an RBA rate hike this year is likely to remain and we think that the benign inflation outlook will see rates on hold for 2007," Mr Ryan said.

"If this proves true, then dollar could be vulnerable to a downwards correction.

"A key area of support is seen around US80c. A break here could see the dollar move lower towards our forecast of US78c by the end of the year."

美讶

他奶奶的。。。。。

Devil_Star

澳洲各大银行对澳币的预测可能全部都要落空了～

oliverzeno

原帖由 Devil_Star 于 2007-6-24 13:42 发表
澳洲各大银行对澳币的预测可能全部都要落空了～

可没有啊老大。。

-----------------------------------------------------

CBA今年年初就已经宣布AUD6月份一定到达8500了

现在他们修改了年底的8300为9000了

虽然我对CBA没什么好感，但是很负责任地说，Worldwide 上CBA对于Aud的把握是最高的。。

Devil_Star

我看到的预测是好几间都认为今年会回落到80的～

黑山老妖

原帖由 Devil_Star 于 2007-6-24 15:49 发表
我看到的预测是好几间都认为今年会回落到80的～

中国已经抛售美国债券好几个月了。

oliverzeno

原帖由 Devil_Star 于 2007-6-24 15:49 发表
我看到的预测是好几间都认为今年会回落到80的～

我还是那句话，Aud和Aussie200你就埋头买吧。。

coolioo

buy AUD then...

小茉莉

那用澳币投资海外市场不是亏大啊

黑山老妖

原帖由 小茉莉 于 2007-6-25 02:40 发表
那用澳币投资海外市场不是亏大啊

差不多了。。。

sujiea

Because the share market is bullish these days, I think maybe the international capitals has been invested into the Australia share market?

cattor

原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2007-6-24 17:00 发表
我还是那句话，Aud和Aussie200你就埋头买吧。。

请问猴子大哥，aussie200是什么啊？

黑山老妖

原帖由 cattor 于 2007-6-25 09:30 发表


请问猴子大哥，aussie200是什么啊？

我想应该是ASX200指数吧？

小茉莉

好在听从大家的意见
没有盲目下手

但是现在寻找一个合适的投资
真的好难

乱花入眼

cattor

那请问一下，我查了asx200的组成，发现什么类型的股票都有，anz，wbc，seek，djs，cdr，iag，那这个指数主要反映什么指标的呢？

黑山老妖

原帖由 cattor 于 2007-6-25 09:42 发表
那请问一下，我查了asx200的组成，发现什么类型的股票都有，anz，wbc，seek，djs，cdr，iag，那这个指数主要反映什么指标的呢？

ASX200就是澳洲最大的200个股票的指数。没有什么意思，就是反映了澳洲股市的总体performance。就像是美国的DOW JONES一样。

Devil_Star

原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2007-6-24 17:00 发表


我还是那句话，Aud和Aussie200你就埋头买吧。。

呵呵， 是啊， 今年的澳币实在是太猛了， 一波比一波要高～

[ 本帖最后由 Devil_Star 于 2007-6-25 10:21 编辑 ]

Irene

如果澳币升, 为什么用澳币投资海外市场会亏大了呢? 不明白??

黑山老妖

原帖由 Irene 于 2007-6-25 22:16 发表
如果澳币升, 为什么用澳币投资海外市场会亏大了呢? 不明白??

如果今天1澳元换85美分。那么你的10000澳元投资投到美国就变成了8500美元。
1个月后1澳元换90美分。那么你的8500美元就只值9444.44澳元了。
平白的亏了555.56澳元。

cattor

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-6-25 22:25 发表
如果今天1澳元换85美分。那么你的10000澳元投资投到美国就变成了8500美元。
1个月后1澳元换90美分。那么你的8500美元就只值9444.44澳元了。
平白的亏了555.56澳元。

原来是这样。就是说澳币升值，看起来对还未进行海外投资的资金来说，是增值了。但对已经投资海外的资金来说，等于在贬值。

深刻呀深刻。谢谢老妖