滞胀和美联储

紫水晶

作者：约翰-默登


你如何理解滞胀？
美联储备忘录：通货膨胀？什么通货膨胀？
美联储还会再反复减息
该死的通胀鱼雷！全速前进！
苹果、斯普林特、AT&T、转向黑暗面

       我昨晚同享有Stratfor盛誉的乔治-弗里德尔曼谈了话，本周的话题就受此启发。乔治说这次经济衰退将是短暂而急剧的，我当然是认为这次衰退将是浅度的，并伴随以漫长而缓慢的“跋涉式”复苏。具体结果如何将取决于美联储如何看待通胀问题。

       当前，媒体相当担心通货膨胀和经济衰退结合起来，逼迫我们重演1970年的滞胀悲哀。就现在的经济数据来看，有这种担忧当然是情有可原的。本周，我们来看几个不同的通货膨胀定义。美联储怎么可以对通货膨胀置之不理（美联储主席伯南克和副主席科恩都给出了相当温和的讲话）？他们不是应当确保物价稳定吗？看看他们的那些欧洲同行们，人家可都对抗击通胀表示了强硬态度，并说到做到。

        有人提出美联储也应当这样做。这个问题是没有简单答案的，不过我会尝试将冲突问题一一列出来，并说明美联储为什么还将会一减再减，就此我已经写了数月时间了。友善的读者们，让我们把脑筋开动起来，因为我们接下来要深入钻研一些难解而非常重要的课程。

        不过首先，最后跟大家通知一下，现在距我的第五届年度策略投资会登记截止日只剩一周时间了，投资会将于4月10至12日在拉荷亚举行（与我的合作方Altegris投资公司共同举办）。邀请的演讲嘉宾有Pimco的保罗-麦卡利、BMO的唐-考斯（我最敬爱的两位经济学家，也是出色的演说家）、罗布-亚诺特、数据专家格雷格-韦尔登、Stratfor的乔治-弗里德尔曼、你们这位谦卑的分析师还有十多位对冲基金经理人，他们将会告诉你他们是如何在这浑水里摸鱼的。

        参加过往届会议的朋友大都将这个会评为他们当年参加过的最好的投资会，也经常有人说是他们参加过的所有投资会中最好的。由于监管原因，此会仅向拥有超过200万美元资产净值的人士开放。我很不想做这样的限制，但规则就是规则。你可以点击链接：https://hedge-fund-conference.com/invitation.aspx?ref=mauldin 登记及了解会议的有关信息。登记后，Altegris投资公司的一位员工将会与您联系，所有与会者都必须跟Altegris的一位专业人士交谈过。再次，这是因为会议涉及私募股权投资内容，我们为应付规定所做的安排。如果您有任何疑问，请与我联系。

你如何理解滞胀？

  
美联储备忘录：通货膨胀？什么通货膨胀？

  美联储还会再反复减息

        在本周的国会听证会上，伯南克几乎是许诺了美联储将会有更多次减息。市场预期美联储基金利率在六个月内至少还会再降低1％，并按此进行定价。我认为会更快。美联储在对市场危机做出反应上是不会慢吞吞，每次会议只减25个基点的，这不是他们的作风。如果美联储在下次会议（三月份）上只减息25个基点，股市会关门大吉的。

  
该死的通胀鱼雷！全速前进！

Stagflation and the Fed

February 29, 2008
by John Mauldin

How Do You Spell Stagflation?
Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation?
The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again
Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead!
Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side


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This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how the Fed thinks about inflation.

There is considerable angst in the press about inflation and recession conspiring to bring us to a repeat of the 1970s woes of stagflation. And the economic data can certainly be interpreted as warranting such concern. This week we look at several different definitions of inflation. How can the Fed (in the form of both Fed chairman Bernanke and governor Kohn giving quite dovish presentations) dismiss inflation? Aren't they supposed to make sure that prices are stable? Just look at their European counterparts who talk tough on inflation and then "walk their talk."

There are those who suggest the Fed should do the same. There is no easy answer, but I will try to lay out the conflicting concerns and explain why the Fed is going to cut and cut again, as I have been writing for months. Let's put on our thinking caps, gentle reader, as we delve into some arcane but very important lessons.

But first, and for the last time at the beginning of my letter, I want to remind you there is only a week left to register for my 5th annual Strategic Investment Conference, to be held in La Jolla April 10-12 (co-hosted by my partners at Altegris Investments). Speakers include Paul McCulley of Pimco, Don Coxe of BMO (two of my favorite economists anywhere, and simply brilliant speakers), Rob Arnott, data maven Greg Weldon, George Friedman of Stratfor, as well as your humble analyst and a dozen hedge fund managers who will show you how they navigate in these troubled waters.

Attendees at previous conferences generally rate them as the best conference they attend in any given year, and often the best conference they have ever been to. We do try to do it right. The conference is limited to those with a net worth of over $2,000,000, due to regulatory requirements. I simply hate to put limits like that, but rules are rules. You can register and learn more by clicking on the following link. https://hedge-fund-conference.com/invitation.aspx?ref=mauldin. You can register at that link, and someone from Altegris will call you, as all attendees must have a conversation with a professional from Altegris. Again, those are the regulations you deal with when there are private offerings being discussed at a conference. And let me know if you have any problems.

How Do You Spell Stagflation?

紫水晶

The classic definition of stagflation is a period of high and rising inflation, which coincides with a recession or very slow growth. Let's look at 10 recent items which have come across my screen, which I think leave little doubt that we are in a recession. (It could just as easily have been 20, but I think 10 are enough to prove the point.) In no particular order:

After hovering above 50 in recent months, the Chicago ISM number dropped sharply to 44.5 in February, notching its lowest reading since December 2001 and coming in well below expectations. This brings this survey in line with the disastrous services survey of last month.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for the United States came in at 70.8. This is the lowest reading for the index in 16 years.
"The New York City Purchasing Manager's Survey fell for the second consecutive month to 427.7 in February. The current conditions index fell to 43.4, down from 47.9 in January. The six-month outlook index was below 50 for the second consecutive month for the first time in the survey's history; at 47.5 it was down from 70 in February of 2007. The worsening conditions reflect rising prices coupled with slower job growth and layoffs in financial services, as well as tightening credit conditions and higher unemployment." (economy.com)
The dollar hit an all-time low against the euro and fell this week against nearly every currency in the world, except Zimbabwe's. And with inflation running there at 100,000%, I think we will have at least one currency against which we will stay strong. As an aside, and as I wrote in my annual forecast, I think we are seeing a top forming on the dollar against the euro over the next few months, but the dollar will continue to fall against Asian currencies.
Oil is over $101 a barrel, and rising energy prices act as a tax on consumers, who have less available to spend on other items To add insult to injury, much of that money is sent to foreign countries that are hostile to the US. Of course, we should be grateful that some of the countries recycle those dollars back to the US, buying large positions in our major banks and keeping them from going bankrupt.
Home prices continue to fall and home construction is slowing dramatically, even while the available supply of new homes rises to all-time high. Foreclosures are running at record levels and rising everywhere. And everywhere there are "foreclosure tours" as real estate agents charter buses to take prospective buyers to homes which can be bought very cheaply. The number of vacant homes is now over 2,000,000. There is no sign of a bottom in the housing markets. The inventory of unsold homes continues to rise, and is now at almost a 10-month supply.
Commercial real estate construction has held up well, but there are clear signs this is about to come to an end, as lending for commercial real estate is becoming harder to get. Indexes which track commercial real estate are softening and commercial real estate credit default swap prices are soaring. Look at the next chart. It shows that prices for credit default swaps have almost tripled in the last four months for highly rated investment-grade commercial paper. I can't do the math quickly, but the back-of-my-napkin analysis of CDS rates for the lowest-quality commercial paper (junk bond levels) suggests default rates approaching 50%. Only in a major depression of biblical proportions could we expect to see something like that. But it means the securitization market for commercial mortgages is drying up, which means available capital for new construction is going to be much harder to find. This is going to be a drag on growth in the coming quarters.


Personal income for the average US consumer rose by the same amount as inflation, around 0.4%, and with rising energy and food costs (which we will look at later) it is no wonder that retail sales are down and falling. The savings rate is still negative, which means consumers are using savings to maintain their consumption.
Jobless claims continue to climb toward recessionary levels. Remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator. Jobs are one of the last things to fall in a recession, as employers are reluctant to cut back but then begin to do so more rapidly as it becomes clear we are in a recession and not just a temporary slowdown.
The index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to plunge, and is not far away from levels last seen in 2001. Such a drop by the LEI has always been accompanied by a recession.
And finally, let's read a quick note from uber-bull and friend Louis Navellier that just hit my inbox: "At the beginning of the week we hoped the market would stage a fundamentally-led, broad-based rally after the monoline insurance companies, namely Ambac and MBIA, were able to keep their triple-A ratings. Unfortunately, a healthy rally did not unfold. Instead, the markets rallied briefly, but with junk leading the way. It was basically another short-covering rally that evaporated later in the week. The problems affecting this market are running deeper than expected. Credit-related losses are still unraveling, the housing market is still free-falling, consumer spending has stalled, commodity prices are hitting new highs, manufacturing appears to be contracting, and overall GDP growth is skidding."

Even Art Laffer says we are in recession. Amazing. Only Bernanke and Bush think we are simply in a slowing economy. And for political reasons they clearly cannot use the "R" word.

Enough already. I think that should establish that if we are not in a recession, it certainly looks and feel like one. Now let's look at the other condition for stagflation: inflation.

Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation?

The inflation numbers for January were high. I reproduce a table from www.economy.com, which is one of my favorite sources for all sorts of data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in January, which means a rise of 4.4% over the last 12 months. If you annualize the 3-month trend, it is 6.8%. By the way, that 3-month average is a useful tool for discerning trends, so the trend in inflation is not good.

Just last August, annual inflation was 1.9%, including food and energy. Notice the rise since then. Also notice the rise in core inflation (2.5%) and the 3-month trend of 3.1%. This is clearly above the Fed's comfort zone of 2%, although good friend Paul McCulley makes a good case that the comfort zone should be higher.



We all know about energy prices. My assistant fills up my car about once a week, and yesterday she came in and said, "We just set a record for the amount of money spent on filling your tank: $75." I don't have that long a commute, but it is clear that a two-car commuting family making a combined $50,000 could easily be spending 10% of their net income on gas.

"Oil prices reached a new record high this week and traded consistently above the $100 per barrel mark. The price of West Texas Intermediate closed at $102.6 per barrel on Thursday, a new nominal high. Brent crude--used as a benchmark in Europe and Asia--reached $101.3 per barrel on the same day. Adjusted for inflation, oil has still not matched the high set in April 1980. A price of $104 per barrel for WTI would break the 1980 inflation-adjusted record. This could happen soon, given the bullish trend of the last few days." (Dismal Scientist)

If prices stay at current levels through April, gasoline will be approaching $4 a gallon and it will cost $100 to fill my gas tank. Ouch. You can bet that will make the current downturn much worse.

Let's turn to food. Over the past year, the All Farm Products Index and the Food Commodities Index both increased 13%. And this is showing up in the grocery store. Much of the growth in Wal-Mart sales is actually from rising food prices.

The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again

Bernanke practically promised more rate cuts at this week's Congressional hearings. The market is pricing in at least another 1% lower Fed funds rate within six months. I think it will be sooner. This is not a Fed that will react to the crisis in the markets by going at a slow 25-basis-point cut per meeting. If there is only a 25-basis-point cut at the next meeting in March, the stock market will throw up.

But how can they cut if inflation is high and rising? Bernanke and Kohn made it clear that the think the #1 task right now is to fight the recession/slowdown in the economy. They are not going to let a little inflation keep them from that goal, nor are they worried about the dollar.

But won't that guarantee a repeat of the '70s and require a new Volker to come in and cause a deep recession to bring inflation back down? Are we trying to avoid a recession or only have a mild one today, just to have a major one forced on us in a few years?

I don't think so. To understand why not, we have to look at just what inflation is and how it works its way into the economy. There are significant differences from the 70's and today.

First, remember that Saint Milton Friedman taught us that inflation is anywhere and everywhere always a monetary phenomenon. Monetary inflation is different than rising prices. Monetary inflation can lead to price rises, but they are two different things.

Some will raise the point that the money supply is growing rapidly, by some measures, but I would counter that by other measures it is not. And please do not suggest, as some do, that the soon-to-be $180 billion Term Auction Facility, by which the Fed provides liquidity to banks, is proof of monetary inflation. It is not. The Fed "sterilizes" the money they inject through the use of the TAF, so that while they inject money into banks, they take a similar amount from the economy as a whole. Over the last few years, we have had little growth in the base money supply, and certainly nothing to get worked up over.